{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-18","as_of":"2026-06-18T00:50:12Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-18.json","source_sha256":"51700cf95effb0b9a2e0445f5dc7c2e9ad79da0af95caa9c05f225dde88381cd","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-18T00:50:12Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":3975,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":3612},{"venue":"polymarket","count":363}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":2620,"polymarket":275,"total":2895},"last_updated":"2026-06-18T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":386120549.58,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":563602425.85,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":82525390.62,"polymarket_usd":81520031.06,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-18T00:50:12Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":12511553.37,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1845,"liquidity_usd":4202861.28,"volume_24h_usd":1401458.74},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.11,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.77,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.024},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1705,0.1645,0.1595,0.1615,0.1615,0.1615,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605,0.1715,0.1815]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.84,"oi_contracts":36565.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.49,"oi_contracts":82594.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":68268.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":93972.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":12511553.37,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.136,"oi_contracts":10001730.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1375,"liquidity_usd":4994076.83,"volume_24h_usd":2174216.55},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.29,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.008,"polymarket":0.005},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.027},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1595,0.1595,0.1595,0.1615,0.1615,0.1595,0.1605,0.1645,0.1695,0.1685,0.1655,0.1605,0.1465,0.1325]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":100397.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":64185.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":55699.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.74,"oi_contracts":22602.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.136,"oi_contracts":10001730.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.129,"oi_contracts":8650903.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1285,"liquidity_usd":3031784.07,"volume_24h_usd":2976812.67},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.84,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.55,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.025,"polymarket":0.024},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.02},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1145,0.1145,0.1125,0.1125,0.1105,0.1095,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.0965,0.0965,0.0965,0.1055,0.1045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":37290.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":63475.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":32768.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.87,"oi_contracts":18774.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.12,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.129,"oi_contracts":8650903.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.115,"oi_contracts":9863577.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1155,"liquidity_usd":5101050.63,"volume_24h_usd":3318977.25},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.24,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.93,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.024,"polymarket":0.014},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.03},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0895,0.0885,0.0885,0.0885,0.0885,0.0845,0.0875,0.0855,0.0885,0.0785,0.0785,0.0795,0.0845,0.1015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":46375.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":80144.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":47819.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":114435.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.115,"oi_contracts":9863577.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.082,"oi_contracts":15477175.44,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0775,"liquidity_usd":2642738.25,"volume_24h_usd":3743319.18},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.08,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.48,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":-0.023},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.028},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0955,0.0935,0.0965,0.1005,0.0965,0.0985,0.1015,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055,0.1055,0.1105,0.1075,0.1005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":37215.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":141797.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":51987.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.49,"oi_contracts":168362.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.082,"oi_contracts":15477175.44,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.068,"oi_contracts":8067199.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0665,"liquidity_usd":5171521.01,"volume_24h_usd":642011.66},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.65,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.94,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.018},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0825,0.0835,0.0825,0.0825,0.0835,0.0835,0.0845,0.0845,0.0865,0.0835,0.0765,0.0675,0.0665,0.0665]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":47935.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":30842.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":22531.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":30314.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.068,"oi_contracts":8067199.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":7707784.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0565,"liquidity_usd":4398028.47,"volume_24h_usd":1134557.63},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.53,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.8,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0555,0.0535,0.0535,0.0575,0.0545,0.0535,0.0525,0.0525,0.0515,0.0515,0.0515,0.0605,0.0635,0.0585]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":29285.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":21464.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":20251.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":25674.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":7707784.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.044,"oi_contracts":13217000.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0395,"liquidity_usd":1419970.06,"volume_24h_usd":1348186.05},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":4.34,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.26,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0405,0.044,0.0475,0.0485,0.0515,0.0445,0.0455]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":49159.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":86935.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":148565.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":47617.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.044,"oi_contracts":13217000.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.039,"oi_contracts":20524603.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0225,"liquidity_usd":3319793.37,"volume_24h_usd":1634298.6},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":6.74,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.6,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.011},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0195,0.0205,0.0205,0.0215]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":150640.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":142469.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.64,"oi_contracts":214811.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":152894.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.039,"oi_contracts":20524603.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":7071786.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0265,"liquidity_usd":2867707.62,"volume_24h_usd":2412988.13},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.32,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.52,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0255,0.0255,0.0255,0.0265,0.0255,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0235,0.0245,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0255]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":19631.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":22881.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":20813.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":26101.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":7071786.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.021,"oi_contracts":10284058.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0235,"liquidity_usd":1745600.9,"volume_24h_usd":1373509.96},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.38,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.32,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0165,0.0195,0.0175,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0235,0.0205,0.0215,0.0265]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.49,"oi_contracts":63093.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":31762.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":37774.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":45017.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.021,"oi_contracts":10284058.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":15542710.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":7283781.75,"volume_24h_usd":2733942.71},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":5.11,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.33,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0135,0.0145,0.0125,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0145]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":117254.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":170977.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":166619.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":156040.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":15542710.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":6323362.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0165,"liquidity_usd":4748808.02,"volume_24h_usd":1031999.99},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.08,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.86,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0205,0.0225,0.0225,0.0215,0.0205,0.0205,0.0205,0.0195,0.0175,0.0175]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":32767.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":29751.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":18466.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":48577.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":6323362.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":7868586.25,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"liquidity_usd":3890464.86,"volume_24h_usd":4026580.41},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.58,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.71,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0185,0.0195,0.0195,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0165,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":55427.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":18711.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":85078.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":75932.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":7868586.25,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":8176865.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0165,"liquidity_usd":2458840.7,"volume_24h_usd":1584952.77},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.69,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.45,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0175,0.0185,0.0215,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0165]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":61526.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":33327.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":70174.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":53541.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":8176865.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":127530.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":21506445.98,"volume_24h_usd":8055550.28},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.04,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1005.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":7037.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":6613.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5993.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":127530.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":139750.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":13639027.07,"volume_24h_usd":857952.59},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.48,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1776.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":4735.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":11226.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6502.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":139750.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":153102.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25569192.45,"volume_24h_usd":16565.15},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.05,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.65,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1361.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7960.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":207.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7424.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":153102.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":354502.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":13834777.94,"volume_24h_usd":762250.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.12,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.52,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":21113.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6908.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":4900.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":31793.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":354502.63,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":6578188.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"liquidity_usd":5118057.18,"volume_24h_usd":1026917.62},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.16,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.93,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0095,0.0095,0.0105,0.0125,0.0115,0.0105,0.0115,0.0125,0.0125,0.0145,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":9159.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":5597.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":16031.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":17085.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":6578188.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":7119236.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":3866826.79,"volume_24h_usd":4640267.38},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.34,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":20262.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":15417.66,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":17462.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":16380.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":7119236.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":6078138.96,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":10503133.35,"volume_24h_usd":1496329.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.91,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0065,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":18971.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":17257.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":4780.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":2976.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":6078138.96,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5639292.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"liquidity_usd":7479460.92,"volume_24h_usd":1404133.49},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.85,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.36,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0075,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":24603.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":8315.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":13749.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":11801.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5639292.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":9603835.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":8554126.71,"volume_24h_usd":1720670.95},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":3.15,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.56,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":6915.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":30912.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":7687.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":56627.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":9603835.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5728769.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"liquidity_usd":9442190.43,"volume_24h_usd":1356865.24},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.88,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.72,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0035,0.0055,0.0055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2571.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":9347.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2162.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":19936.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5728769.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Türkiye","slug":"turkey","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5818702.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":3358227.2,"volume_24h_usd":1464824.4},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.91,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.61,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.008},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0135,0.013,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0115,0.0125,0.0105,0.0125,0.0135,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":26065.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":68349.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":16589.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":13388.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":5818702.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7385152.62,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":6882207.69,"volume_24h_usd":1115726.32},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.43,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.25,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0075,0.0075,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":73512.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":55721.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":17418.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":41029.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":7385152.62,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":8911390.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":5156135.49,"volume_24h_usd":1614940.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.93,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.94,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":13905.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":44863.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":14353.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":19064.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":8911390.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":4995663.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":14549101.92,"volume_24h_usd":975302.69},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.64,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.65,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":3464.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":9126.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8273.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":9899.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":4995663.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6614804.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"liquidity_usd":4756968.43,"volume_24h_usd":3422145.85},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.17,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":0.87,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":9205.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1562.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":2580.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":35549.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":6614804.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":6521153.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":10785591.08,"volume_24h_usd":1993953.29},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.14,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.96,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0015,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":515.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":10562.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":28816.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":2200.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":6521153.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":4682701.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":11304956.28,"volume_24h_usd":1195296.54},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.54,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.06,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3708.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":13042.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":40279.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":15755.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":4682701.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6099154.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"liquidity_usd":13650001.94,"volume_24h_usd":1143179.92},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.0,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.48,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":6145.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5019.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":4732.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":11491.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":6099154.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":4965024.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":18120637.91,"volume_24h_usd":2641638.07},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.63,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.3,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":287.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":18032.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4662.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":28833.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":4965024.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":5456213.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25623542.93,"volume_24h_usd":34502.75},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.79,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.66,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5776.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10810.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1595.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":19540.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":5456213.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":3824588.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":13563158.89,"volume_24h_usd":2211894.35},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.26,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.47,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1317.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":4438.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":710.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":13618.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":3824588.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5013099.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"liquidity_usd":10441814.48,"volume_24h_usd":790122.19},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.65,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":1.9,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":3523.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5427.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3901.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":25082.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5013099.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2314588.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":14660899.74,"volume_24h_usd":1869797.03},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.76,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.67,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":1170.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":13936.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":804.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":210.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2314588.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":8316207.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":14013588.86,"volume_24h_usd":1127927.19},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.73,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":2.55,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":8510.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5632.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":25698.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":8316207.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Haiti","slug":"haiti","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6951366.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25415051.66,"volume_24h_usd":8032.14},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":2.28,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.63,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":11761.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":15526.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":36985.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":9267.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":6951366.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1269479.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":23350520.18,"volume_24h_usd":1541726.8},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.42,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.25,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":18458.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":25158.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1791.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":667.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1269479.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2317783.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":24670714.24,"volume_24h_usd":114564.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.76,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.49,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1906.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":7573.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1987.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2317783.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1122341.06,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":23679295.76,"volume_24h_usd":6000.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.37,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.31,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":20456.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":608.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3006.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1122341.06,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":4484885.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":20323415.77,"volume_24h_usd":1577525.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":1.47,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.7,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":15481.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4072.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":7982.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":7217.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":4484885.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1109351.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":21329985.47,"volume_24h_usd":23001.0},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.36,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.88,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1616.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":748.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":32034.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4324.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1109351.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":857149.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":25055987.72,"volume_24h_usd":114639.88},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.28,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.56,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":12339.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4860.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8736.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":857149.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":22640078.41,"volume_24h_usd":19019.09},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.17,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":4.12,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3959.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":2295.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15402.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2068326.79,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":19244518.88,"volume_24h_usd":184931.44},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":0.68,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":3.5,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1307.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":457.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":8638.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":2318.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":2068326.79,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":false},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":567041.7,"volume_24h_contracts":73764.16,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.245,"liquidity_usd":74366.98,"volume_24h_usd":52912.17},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.08,"polymarket":-0.06},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.095},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":351306.24,"volume_24h_contracts":129418.81,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.2115,"liquidity_usd":77628.46,"volume_24h_usd":105308.79},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.17,"polymarket":0.146},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.17},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry 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