World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Netherlands	-0.3	+0.4	+0.4 pts ᴾ
Japan	+0.0	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
USA	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
France	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+0.0	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+0.1	-1.0	−1.0 pts ᴾ
England	+0.0	-0.9	−0.9 pts ᴾ
Spain	-0.3	-0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Portugal	+0.0	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	-0.3	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
England	10.8%	9.7%	1.1 pts
Argentina	9.0%	7.8%	1.1 pts
France	17.2%	16.1%	1.1 pts
Netherlands	5.8%	4.8%	1.1 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
USA	2.0%	1.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	17.2%	16.1%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Spain	17.1%	16.9%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Portugal	10.9%	10.5%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
England	10.8%	9.7%	−0.9 pts ᴾ
Argentina	9.0%	7.8%	−1.0 pts ᴾ
Brazil	8.5%	8.3%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	5.8%	4.8%	+0.4 pts ᴾ
Germany	5.6%	5.1%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.5%	2.5%	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Belgium	2.3%	2.1%	+0.0 pts ᴷ