World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	—	+0.5	+0.5 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	+0.4	+0.4 pts ᴾ
Portugal	—	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Argentina	—	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	—	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	—	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Türkiye	—	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Germany	—	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Norway	—	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Belgium	—	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Netherlands	6.1%	4.4%	1.7 pts
Mexico	2.4%	1.4%	1.1 pts
France	17.0%	16.1%	1.0 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
USA	1.7%	1.1%	0.6 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
Spain	17.4%	17.0%	+0.5 pts ᴾ
France	17.0%	16.1%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Portugal	10.9%	10.8%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
England	10.8%	10.5%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Argentina	8.9%	8.8%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	8.8%	8.6%	+0.2 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	6.1%	4.4%	+0.4 pts ᴾ
Germany	5.6%	5.1%	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Norway	2.5%	2.4%	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Mexico	2.4%	1.4%	+0.0 pts ᴾ