World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
USA	+1.8	+0.8	+1.8 pts ᴷ
Morocco	+1.0	+0.8	+1.0 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Norway	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ
South Korea	+0.1	-0.1	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Brazil	-1.3	-0.7	−1.3 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.6	-0.3	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Belgium	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Switzerland	+0.0	-0.5	−0.5 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.8%	1.9%	1.8 pts
France	17.2%	16.1%	1.1 pts
Argentina	8.9%	7.8%	1.0 pts
Netherlands	5.8%	4.9%	1.0 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	17.2%	16.1%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Spain	16.5%	16.6%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	10.9%	10.5%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
England	10.4%	9.7%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	8.9%	7.8%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Brazil	7.2%	7.6%	−1.3 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	5.8%	4.9%	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Germany	5.1%	5.1%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
USA	3.8%	1.9%	+1.8 pts ᴷ
Morocco	2.7%	2.4%	+1.0 pts ᴷ