{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-13","as_of":"2026-06-13T00:50:15Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-13.json","source_sha256":"dad2dbd3c2050b3964e0dd8b79b6c9a1353d8c34376718deda85a912934b97c7","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-13T00:50:15Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":3337,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":2991},{"venue":"polymarket","count":346}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":2280,"polymarket":290,"total":2570},"last_updated":"2026-06-13T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":245563644.57,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":444392592.15,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":74018389.27,"polymarket_usd":108605880.65,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-13T00:50:15Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.172,"oi_contracts":8769739.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1605,"volume_24h_usd":2166887.91},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1665,0.1635,0.1705,0.1705,0.1705,0.1705,0.1645,0.1595,0.1615,0.1615,0.1615,0.1605,0.1605,0.1605]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.82,"oi_contracts":16619.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":58927.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":53200.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":67064.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.172,"oi_contracts":8769739.82,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.171,"oi_contracts":7240199.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1685,"volume_24h_usd":2465810.71},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":0.009},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1695,0.1675,0.1695,0.1675,0.1635,0.1595,0.1595,0.1595,0.1615,0.1615,0.1595,0.1605,0.1645,0.1695]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":81999.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":48258.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.62,"oi_contracts":43913.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.79,"oi_contracts":17458.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.171,"oi_contracts":7240199.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.109,"oi_contracts":10436260.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1055,"volume_24h_usd":1929771.61},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.013,"polymarket":0.009},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1025,0.1005,0.0935,0.0935,0.0955,0.0955,0.0935,0.0965,0.1005,0.0965,0.0985,0.1015,0.1055,0.1085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":28124.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":114321.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":40859.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":124385.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.109,"oi_contracts":10436260.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.108,"oi_contracts":6048928.62,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0965,"volume_24h_usd":1700646.36},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.009},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":-0.016},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.1115,0.1125,0.1115,0.1115,0.1115,0.1145,0.1145,0.1125,0.1125,0.1105,0.1095,0.1055,0.1085,0.1055]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":25765.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":52930.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":18182.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.77,"oi_contracts":12901.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.108,"oi_contracts":6048928.62,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":5653758.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0785,"volume_24h_usd":2360496.95},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0855,0.0855,0.0895,0.0895,0.0875,0.0895,0.0885,0.0885,0.0885,0.0885,0.0845,0.0875,0.0855,0.0885]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.69,"oi_contracts":34618.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":50533.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":28135.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":77972.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":5653758.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.085,"oi_contracts":5986939.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0835,"volume_24h_usd":1508178.07},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0935,0.0895,0.0865,0.0855,0.0835,0.0825,0.0835,0.0825,0.0825,0.0835,0.0835,0.0845,0.0845,0.0865]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":39377.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":18990.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":17613.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.71,"oi_contracts":16516.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.085,"oi_contracts":5986939.02,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.058,"oi_contracts":9605328.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0475,"volume_24h_usd":2459794.23},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0035},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.011,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0385,0.0425,0.0365,0.0365,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0405,0.044]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":34729.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":74351.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":91493.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":32642.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.058,"oi_contracts":9605328.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.056,"oi_contracts":4369869.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0515,"volume_24h_usd":2012482.99},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.004,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0515,0.0515,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0555,0.0535,0.0535,0.0575,0.0545,0.0535,0.0525,0.0525,0.0515]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":14420.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.72,"oi_contracts":6622.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":10041.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":13749.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.056,"oi_contracts":4369869.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":4364892.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0245,"volume_24h_usd":1854750.39},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0285,0.0255,0.0255,0.0265,0.0275,0.0255,0.0255,0.0255,0.0265,0.0255,0.0255,0.0245,0.0245,0.0235]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":14987.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":20119.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":16049.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":18679.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":4364892.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":4520532.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0205,"volume_24h_usd":2151561.29},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0195,0.0205,0.0225,0.0225,0.0215,0.0205]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":23969.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":26141.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":12863.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":43364.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":4520532.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.021,"oi_contracts":12416832.38,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"volume_24h_usd":2913998.58},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0115,0.0115,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0135,0.0145,0.0125,0.0135,0.0135]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.64,"oi_contracts":111624.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":160824.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":105920.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":139931.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.021,"oi_contracts":12416832.38,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":4937328.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0205,"volume_24h_usd":3197534.29},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0185,0.0195,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0185,0.0215,0.0205,0.0195,0.0215,0.0185,0.0175,0.0175]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":53277.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":24403.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":31317.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":36331.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":4937328.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11388320.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0115,"volume_24h_usd":2665928.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":58417.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":62724.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":134096.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":80616.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11388320.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":4329881.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0175,"volume_24h_usd":1594434.82},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0175,0.0185,0.0195,0.0195,0.0185,0.0175]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":49981.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":16803.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":68528.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":56734.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.018,"oi_contracts":4329881.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":6681449.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0155,"volume_24h_usd":1752743.11},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0145,0.0145,0.0145,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0155,0.0165,0.0195,0.0175,0.0155,0.0155]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":27133.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":36819.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":25337.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":21906.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":6681449.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3126640.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0145,"volume_24h_usd":2757813.24},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0105,0.0095,0.0095,0.0105,0.0125,0.0115,0.0105,0.0115,0.0125,0.0125]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":9090.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":4707.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":12082.57,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.64,"oi_contracts":19244.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3126640.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Türkiye","slug":"turkey","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3791664.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"volume_24h_usd":2162594.33},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0075,0.0075,0.0085,0.0085,0.0105,0.0135,0.013,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0125,0.0115,0.0125,0.0105]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":25223.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":38663.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":14829.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":7423.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3791664.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3254369.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0095,"volume_24h_usd":3624765.01},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0105,0.0095]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":14449.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":14672.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":3445.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":2603.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3254369.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":106759.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":12483494.22},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1750.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":3972.74,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.11,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10149.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5719.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":106759.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":274551.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":5015094.6},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2629.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1893.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":3930.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":26965.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":274551.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":30509.75,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":1417896.24},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1004.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":5659.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":9836.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5993.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":30509.75,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":111201.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":270800.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1349.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5604.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6148.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":111201.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":5183998.76,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"volume_24h_usd":2655343.54},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":61095.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":32905.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":17084.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":30777.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":5183998.76,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":3946816.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"volume_24h_usd":2686634.2},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0085]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":16388.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":13291.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":15853.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":8739.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":3946816.27,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":2088959.15,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"volume_24h_usd":916249.97},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0075,0.0065]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":17702.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":6778.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":9658.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":8046.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":2088959.15,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":5557508.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":10271186.11},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":7712.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":23045.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.15,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":9700.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":10106.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":5557508.04,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":4247029.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":1419089.61},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":8510.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1529.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1790.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":28440.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":4247029.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":4367610.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":1498406.14},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":4891.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":9329.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":6862.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":42426.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":4367610.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":2182722.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":2637337.04},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0055,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1721.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":6229.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1000.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":12712.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":2182722.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":3522021.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":1144002.33},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":4630.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":427.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":3639.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":4053.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":3522021.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2474507.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":7259989.94},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3495.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":4156.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":3697.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":21207.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2474507.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":3546894.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":2883353.94},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3177.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11936.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":37582.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":13943.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":3546894.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1714978.98,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":1204318.96},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":703.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":3305.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":385.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":12343.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1714978.98,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2203622.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2481445.93},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1634.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3550.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6910.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":4421.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2203622.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2397003.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2161666.42},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":287.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":16587.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4013.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":24891.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2397003.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2510803.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":1888763.2},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0015,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":515.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1197.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":9051.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":345.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2510803.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5093079.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2672936.44},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":5448.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3339.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":9041.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5093079.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":983952.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":96840.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1433.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":748.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":29017.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1092.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":983952.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":772066.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":159250.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5741.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":10769.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1540.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":15141.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":772066.61,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":573730.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":219000.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":6772.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4857.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8736.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":573730.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":452649.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":171396.87},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1877.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":6508.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1791.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":452649.97,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1060967.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":317320.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1720.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2864.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1973.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1060967.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":641666.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":580080.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":18905.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":353.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":641666.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":445684.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":196941.52},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":9660.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1834.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":374.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":445684.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Haiti","slug":"haiti","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5583503.96,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":185700.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7956.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":13011.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":28553.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":8606.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5583503.96,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1043008.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":374542.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":804.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1031.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":9686.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":210.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1043008.87,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":218216.23},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0015,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5311.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1036.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":15402.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1355471.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":303030.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005,0.0005]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1017.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":271.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":6230.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2270.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1355471.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":false},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":306284.12,"volume_24h_contracts":50936.16,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.155,"liquidity_usd":585626.54,"volume_24h_usd":27048.96},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},{"display_name":"Harry Kane","slug":"harry-kane","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":235627.34,"volume_24h_contracts":22057.86,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.135,"liquidity_usd":383746.84,"volume_24h_usd":14507.35},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},{"display_name":"Mikel Oyarzabal","slug":"mikel-oyarzabal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":172093.56,"volume_24h_contracts":28338.72,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.095,"liquidity_usd":157415.21,"volume_24h_usd":5967.16},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},{"display_name":"Erling Haaland","slug":"erling-haaland","team":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":367966.33,"volume_24h_contracts":25122.4,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.085,"liquidity_usd":87020.96,"volume_24h_usd":16097.8},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},{"display_name":"Michael 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Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":192867.11,"volume_24h_contracts":14098.57,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0485,"liquidity_usd":75702.67,"volume_24h_usd":24085.53},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.012},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},{"display_name":"Cristiano Ronaldo","slug":"cristiano-ronaldo","team":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":120184.9,"volume_24h_contracts":15205.87,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.046,"liquidity_usd":93591.92,"volume_24h_usd":12920.78},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":-0.0005},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},{"display_name":"Julian 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