World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	—	+0.4	+0.4 pts ᴾ
Portugal	—	+0.4	+0.4 pts ᴾ
England	—	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Mexico	—	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	—	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Morocco	—	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Belgium	—	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Colombia	—	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ
Japan	—	-0.1	−0.1 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

No team is priced on both venues for this record.

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
Spain	—	16.4%	+0.4 pts ᴾ
France	—	16.1%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
England	—	10.8%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Portugal	—	10.5%	+0.4 pts ᴾ
Argentina	—	8.6%	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Brazil	—	8.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Germany	—	5.2%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	—	4.0%	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Norway	—	2.5%	+0.0 pts ᴾ
Belgium	—	2.1%	−0.1 pts ᴾ