{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-12","as_of":"2026-06-12T00:50:12Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-12.json","source_sha256":"1005520b6ef6ada61e452c30630476ac577a07a4228882a3d731e00e4e701349","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-12T00:50:12Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":2926,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":2581},{"venue":"polymarket","count":345}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":2093,"polymarket":292,"total":2385},"last_updated":"2026-06-12T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":189046934.73,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":427052110.49,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.109,"oi_contracts":9229103.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1085,"volume_24h_usd":3359129.5},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.018,"polymarket":0.015},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.089,0.093,0.106,0.104,0.093,0.094,0.095,0.091,0.096,0.11,0.105,0.101,0.103],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.7,"oi_contracts":23523.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":101450.76,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":40663.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":119920.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.109,"oi_contracts":9229103.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.108,"oi_contracts":4971525.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1055,"volume_24h_usd":2109787.9},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":-0.009},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.111,0.114,0.113,0.114,0.109,0.111,0.109,0.104,0.105,0.105,0.102,0.102,0.105],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":25341.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":51504.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":15932.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.76,"oi_contracts":11857.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.108,"oi_contracts":4971525.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.024,"oi_contracts":11470791.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"volume_24h_usd":4897918.27},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.014,0.014,0.013,0.014,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.014,0.019,0.02,0.021,0.017,0.017],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":108326.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":153799.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":130006.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":94459.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.024,"oi_contracts":11470791.32,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":3705480.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0205,"volume_24h_usd":4392050.32},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.024,0.023,0.023,0.021,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.02,0.023,0.023,0.023,0.023,0.023],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.64,"oi_contracts":23599.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":25906.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":12025.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":42447.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":3705480.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":3916365.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0175,"volume_24h_usd":4926362.29},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.019,0.019,0.02,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.019,0.019,0.019,0.021],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":47549.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":16233.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":61581.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":55292.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":3916365.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":4307149.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0175,"volume_24h_usd":3575034.53},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.016,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.014,0.013,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.016,0.017,0.017],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":47245.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":24120.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":27878.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":29180.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":4307149.68,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":8165697.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0115,"volume_24h_usd":1826145.1},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.014,0.015,0.014,0.016,0.017,0.016,0.016,0.017,0.015],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":53700.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":57033.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.5,"oi_contracts":114411.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":64441.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":8165697.2,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":5537626.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0155,"volume_24h_usd":3297634.72},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.013,0.012,0.014,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.016,0.014,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":26121.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":25337.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":19894.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":32168.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":5537626.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2725235.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"volume_24h_usd":2472554.42},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.012,0.012,0.011,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.011],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":6436.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":11926.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":2617.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":16401.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2725235.21,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Türkiye","slug":"turkey","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3250537.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"volume_24h_usd":2939109.44},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.0025},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.01,0.012,0.011,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":15713.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":36270.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11020.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":7022.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3250537.67,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3091664.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0095,"volume_24h_usd":3094391.81},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":13176.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":14360.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":2459.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":3009.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3091664.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":213318.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":3005422.3},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":2629.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1536.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2515.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":14220.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":213318.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":28289.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2068086.99},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":724.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":5659.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":9732.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5993.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":28289.93,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":104532.12,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":6312119.55},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":1705.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":2228.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":3303.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1355.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":104532.12,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":110154.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":343062.75},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1349.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4340.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6148.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":110154.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":4842074.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"volume_24h_usd":3471349.33},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":56421.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":29316.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":27406.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":14020.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":4842074.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":3640445.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"volume_24h_usd":2887825.88},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.009,0.009,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.009,0.009,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":15746.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":12354.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":14488.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":6937.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":3640445.24,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":1913364.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"volume_24h_usd":2456640.45},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":17059.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":6482.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":7326.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":7757.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.007,"oi_contracts":1913364.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":2524271.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":2899912.48},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.006,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":7488.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1080.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":1458.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":24915.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":2524271.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":2349018.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":2707608.86},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.004,0.004,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":2844.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":11843.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":31169.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":7934.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":2349018.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":4110874.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":3492461.53},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3570.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":8481.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5932.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":41713.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":4110874.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1743567.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":3203747.34},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.005,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":1596.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":3341.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1000.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":12465.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1743567.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":3535212.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":3569900.93},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":5294.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.36,"oi_contracts":18792.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":6850.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":6104.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":3535212.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1259496.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":2540431.58},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":4585.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":427.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":3589.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":3581.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1259496.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2425927.53,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":2244915.38},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.002,0.003,0.003,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1187.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":9031.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":158.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2425927.53,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1617228.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2447139.06},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3495.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":3470.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":1894.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":18564.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1617228.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1833612.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":1845458.67},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":594.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3550.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6910.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":3989.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1833612.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2269658.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2305509.8},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":287.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":16582.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":3798.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":24766.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2269658.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1662342.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2885330.84},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":3175.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":672.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":260.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":12062.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1662342.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":4584432.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2770859.09},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":4882.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1339.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":8806.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":4584432.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":740496.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":1964527.11},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":998.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":9663.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":804.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":210.16,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":740496.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":957603.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":546288.8},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1045.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":748.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":28396.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1092.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":957603.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":581641.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":215526.79},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5615.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":10769.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1540.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":14644.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":581641.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Haiti","slug":"haiti","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5309892.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":137204.25},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":7956.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10495.4,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":22082.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5080.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":5309892.28,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":437697.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":261916.27},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1783.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":6508.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1730.23,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":437697.77,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":399727.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":160511.38},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":6500.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3921.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7801.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":399727.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":196041.99},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":5418.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":854.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":15238.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1256927.53,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":310814.95},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":503.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":271.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":4166.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1335.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":1256927.53,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":882284.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":88598.12},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1313.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2239.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":501.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":882284.35,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":500101.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":440688.55},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":18812.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":353.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":500101.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":367248.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":163899.9},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":7235.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1485.94,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":null,"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":false,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":367248.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":false},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. 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