{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "event_id": "world-cup-2026-winner",
  "event_name": "2026 FIFA World Cup — Winner",
  "snapshot_time": "2026-07-14T00:50:13Z",
  "venue": "kalshi",
  "scope": "winner_market_only",
  "opc_gross_locked_usd": 123510267,
  "opc_reconciliation": {
    "sum_of_team_opc_usd": 123510266,
    "truncation_residual_usd": 1,
    "note": "opc_gross_locked_usd is floor(sum of raw per-team open interest); per-team opc_usd is floor(raw) and therefore sums to slightly less. The residual is the dropped sub-dollar fractions, not missing capital."
  },
  "methodology_version": "gross_locked_v1",
  "counting_method": "gross_locked_v1",
  "cross_venue_status": "blocked_pending_normalization",
  "left_censored": true,
  "confidence": "high",
  "coverage": {
    "teams_with_data": 4,
    "teams_total": 48
  },
  "overround_yes_price_sum": 0.994,
  "canonical_market": {
    "kalshi_series": null,
    "note": "Winner-market Kalshi series ticker not present in the freeze envelope; left null rather than guessed."
  },
  "caveats": [
    "Single-venue (Kalshi) only. Cross-venue total is blocked pending notional normalisation; Polymarket figures are USD liquidity (depth), not OPC.",
    "left_censored applies to the historical peak (OI_peak) and lifecycle, not to this current snapshot: the standing stock at snapshot_time is observable in full.",
    "Gross-locked counts collateral jointly held on the YES and NO side of each team binary (clearinghouse-held capital on the event). It is genuine committed risk capital, not a double-count, but it is not 'money staked on the winner' in the simplex sense; see methodology.",
    "Outcome prices carry an overround (sum of yes_price = 0.994); the price-implied shares in /teams normalise it out.",
    "Settlement axis is empty (the tournament is unresolved); no SPR/EER is published.",
    "Off-venue / dark capital is unobservable by definition."
  ],
  "links": {
    "teams": "https://volroc.ai/api/public/opc/events/world-cup-2026-winner/teams",
    "methodology": "https://volroc.ai/api/public/opc/methodology",
    "schema": "https://volroc.ai/api/public/schema/opc"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "source": "Kalshi World Cup Winner daily freeze (immutable)",
    "source_uri": "s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-14.json",
    "source_fields": "consensus.teams[].kalshi.{ticker,yes_price,oi_contracts}",
    "source_sha256": "13831f2ad1485809a88cbffbfb83ddff592baa0efc05fab2dda165924a7874b8",
    "reference": "VolRoc R2 (2026-06-14) World Cup OPC measurement",
    "generated_at": "2026-07-14T01:30:04Z"
  },
  "attribution": "Cite as \"VolRoc\" with a link to https://volroc.ai. Observational data, not advice; not a sportsbook, broker, or exchange."
}