{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "event_id": "world-cup-2026-winner",
  "event_name": "2026 FIFA World Cup — Winner",
  "snapshot_time": "2026-07-14T00:50:13Z",
  "venue": "kalshi",
  "scope": "winner_market_only",
  "counting_method": "gross_locked_v1",
  "methodology_version": "gross_locked_v1",
  "opc_gross_locked_usd_total": 123510267,
  "sum_of_team_opc_usd": 123510266,
  "truncation_residual_usd": 1,
  "overround_yes_price_sum": 0.994,
  "team_count": 4,
  "sort": "opc_usd_desc",
  "field_notes": {
    "oi_contracts": "raw open interest from the freeze (may be fractional); the source of truth.",
    "opc_usd": "floor(oi_contracts x $1), Kalshi binaries are $1-collateralised. Per-team floors sum to truncation_residual_usd below opc_gross_locked_usd_total, which is floor(sum of raw OI).",
    "opc_share": "opc_usd / opc_gross_locked_usd_total.",
    "price_implied_share": "yes_price / overround_yes_price_sum (overround removed).",
    "capital_probability_divergence": "opc_share - price_implied_share (signed; positive = more capital than win-probability warrants). Derived/interpretive; recompute the ratio from the raw fields if preferred."
  },
  "teams": [
    {
      "ticker": "KXMENWORLDCUP",
      "team_name": "France",
      "yes_price": 0.394,
      "oi_contracts": 39239936.23,
      "opc_usd": 39239936,
      "opc_share": 0.317706,
      "price_implied_share": 0.396378,
      "capital_probability_divergence": -0.078672,
      "methodology_version": "gross_locked_v1",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "KXMENWORLDCUP",
      "team_name": "Argentina",
      "yes_price": 0.175,
      "oi_contracts": 36307314.22,
      "opc_usd": 36307314,
      "opc_share": 0.293962,
      "price_implied_share": 0.176056,
      "capital_probability_divergence": 0.117906,
      "methodology_version": "gross_locked_v1",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "KXMENWORLDCUP",
      "team_name": "Spain",
      "yes_price": 0.208,
      "oi_contracts": 25327693.27,
      "opc_usd": 25327693,
      "opc_share": 0.205065,
      "price_implied_share": 0.209256,
      "capital_probability_divergence": -0.00419,
      "methodology_version": "gross_locked_v1",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "KXMENWORLDCUP",
      "team_name": "England",
      "yes_price": 0.217,
      "oi_contracts": 22635323.34,
      "opc_usd": 22635323,
      "opc_share": 0.183267,
      "price_implied_share": 0.21831,
      "capital_probability_divergence": -0.035043,
      "methodology_version": "gross_locked_v1",
      "confidence": "high"
    }
  ],
  "links": {
    "event": "https://volroc.ai/api/public/opc/events/world-cup-2026-winner",
    "methodology": "https://volroc.ai/api/public/opc/methodology"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "source_uri": "s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-14.json",
    "source_fields": "consensus.teams[].kalshi.{ticker,yes_price,oi_contracts}",
    "source_sha256": "13831f2ad1485809a88cbffbfb83ddff592baa0efc05fab2dda165924a7874b8",
    "generated_at": "2026-07-14T01:30:04Z"
  }
}