{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-16","as_of":"2026-07-16T00:50:13Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-16.json","source_sha256":"4cdd729c101f7fe2c6dfbd9e36e408cc0c10df2e37a92a5600e9fab896780c9e","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-16T00:50:13Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":null,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":967},{"venue":"polymarket","count":null}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":758,"polymarket":null,"total":null},"last_updated":"2026-07-16T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":112063278.13,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":null,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":40401370.28,"polymarket_usd":null,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-16T00:50:13Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.572,"oi_contracts":29196467.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.5795,"liquidity_usd":6448341.29,"volume_24h_usd":4794336.92},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":38.19,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":49.56,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.008,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.384,"polymarket":0.392},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.422,"polymarket":0.433},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.093,0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204,0.205,0.208,0.58],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.427,"oi_contracts":47257484.34,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.4215,"liquidity_usd":6562303.54,"volume_24h_usd":13392236.43},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":61.81,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":50.44,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.233,"polymarket":0.233},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.237,"polymarket":0.221},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.34,"polymarket":0.337},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.19,0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18,0.182,0.175,0.194],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":null,"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":null,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":null,"polymarket":null,"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":null,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.082,0.075,0.073,0.066,0.082,0.141,0.158,0.156,0.158,0.155,0.207,0.214,0.217,0.229],"polymarket":[]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.66,"oi_contracts":1887489.97,"volume_24h_contracts":883471.87,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3395,"liquidity_usd":452064.0,"volume_24h_usd":42200.03},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.08,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.25,"polymarket":-0.043},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":1939247.22,"volume_24h_contracts":558220.4,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.565,"liquidity_usd":867488.39,"volume_24h_usd":66774.93},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":0.15},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry Kane","slug":"harry-kane","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1348236.82,"volume_24h_contracts":292829.45,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0495,"liquidity_usd":119049.11,"volume_24h_usd":91030.66},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.06,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":-0.032},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Jude Bellingham","slug":"jude-bellingham","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":803653.23,"volume_24h_contracts":274920.02,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0345,"liquidity_usd":155437.18,"volume_24h_usd":148402.38},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.032},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bradley Barcola","slug":"bradley-barcola","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4323.04,"volume_24h_contracts":3019.71,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":371296.83,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lautaro Martinez","slug":"lautaro-martinez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":145959.86,"volume_24h_contracts":5143.54,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":336857.79,"volume_24h_usd":160.91},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Michael Olise","slug":"michael-olise","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":276039.6,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":216470.6,"volume_24h_usd":3159.67},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ferran Torres","slug":"ferran-torres","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":354423.36,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":332178.51,"volume_24h_usd":5180.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ousmane Dembele","slug":"ousmane-dembele","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":728046.61,"volume_24h_contracts":5143.54,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0075,"liquidity_usd":85931.16,"volume_24h_usd":154998.23},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.0015},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Julian Alvarez","slug":"julian-alvarez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":191433.28,"volume_24h_contracts":476.94,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":336179.19,"volume_24h_usd":160.91},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Bukayo Saka","slug":"bukayo-saka","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":134893.18,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":346573.59,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mikel Oyarzabal","slug":"mikel-oyarzabal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":449481.44,"volume_24h_contracts":29685.7,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"liquidity_usd":124976.67,"volume_24h_usd":181985.97},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lamine Yamal","slug":"lamine-yamal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":447081.23,"volume_24h_contracts":22124.53,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":71405.96,"volume_24h_usd":10457.98},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.0015},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Randal Kolo Muani","slug":"randal-kolo-muani","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6172.65,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Marcus Rashford","slug":"marcus-rashford","team":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1598.86,"volume_24h_contracts":0.0,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":null,"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Marcus Thuram","slug":"marcus-thuram","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":399135.98,"volume_24h_usd":4230.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Pedri","slug":"pedri","team":"spain","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":333480.24,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Desire Doue","slug":"desire-doue","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":335132.71,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Dani Olmo","slug":"dani-olmo","team":"spain","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":363259.68,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}}],"players_history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true},"players_note":"Top Scorer (most-goals) ladder: per-player implied 'yes' price for leading the 2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}