World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+3.5	+0.0	+3.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+0.5	+0.0	+0.5 pts ᴷ
Senegal	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
England	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Netherlands	-2.0	+0.0	−2.0 pts ᴷ
Japan	-1.0	+0.0	−1.0 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.8	+0.0	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Mexico	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
France	22.9%	19.8%	3.1 pts
Portugal	9.5%	6.8%	2.7 pts
England	10.0%	12.6%	2.5 pts
Mexico	2.6%	1.2%	1.3 pts
Argentina	14.7%	13.4%	1.3 pts
Japan	1.1%	2.4%	1.2 pts
Germany	4.6%	5.7%	1.1 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	22.9%	19.8%	+3.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	14.7%	13.4%	+0.5 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.1%	13.9%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
England	10.0%	12.6%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Portugal	9.5%	6.8%	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	6.3%	5.5%	−2.0 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.1%	5.5%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Germany	4.6%	5.7%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
USA	3.7%	3.5%	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Mexico	2.6%	1.2%	−0.6 pts ᴷ