World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+3.5	+2.5	+3.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	+0.5	+0.3	+0.5 pts ᴷ
Senegal	+0.4	+0.3	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Belgium	-0.1	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Netherlands	-2.0	+0.1	−2.0 pts ᴷ
Japan	-1.0	-0.1	−1.0 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.8	-0.3	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.3	-0.6	−0.6 pts ᴾ
Mexico	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Portugal	9.5%	7.8%	1.8 pts
France	22.9%	21.6%	1.4 pts
Mexico	2.6%	1.2%	1.3 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
USA	3.7%	2.8%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Japan	1.1%	1.7%	0.6 pts
Netherlands	6.3%	5.8%	0.5 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	22.9%	21.6%	+3.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	14.7%	14.8%	+0.5 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.1%	13.2%	−0.6 pts ᴾ
England	10.0%	10.2%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Portugal	9.5%	7.8%	−0.5 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	6.3%	5.8%	−2.0 pts ᴷ
Brazil	6.1%	5.7%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Germany	4.6%	4.5%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
USA	3.7%	2.8%	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Mexico	2.6%	1.2%	−0.6 pts ᴷ