World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	+1.5	+0.0	+1.5 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	+1.5	+0.0	+1.5 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+1.4	+0.0	+1.4 pts ᴷ
Ecuador	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Japan	+0.3	+0.0	+0.3 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-1.0	+0.0	−1.0 pts ᴷ
France	-0.9	+0.0	−0.9 pts ᴷ
England	-0.6	+0.0	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Germany	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
USA	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Portugal	9.9%	6.8%	3.1 pts
Netherlands	8.3%	5.5%	2.9 pts
England	9.8%	12.6%	2.7 pts
Mexico	3.2%	1.2%	1.9 pts
USA	4.5%	3.5%	1.0 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Germany	4.8%	5.7%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	19.4%	19.8%	−0.9 pts ᴷ
Argentina	14.2%	13.4%	−1.0 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.4%	13.9%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
England	9.8%	12.6%	−0.6 pts ᴷ
Portugal	9.9%	6.8%	+1.5 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	8.3%	5.5%	+1.5 pts ᴷ
Brazil	5.8%	5.5%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Germany	4.8%	5.7%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
USA	4.5%	3.5%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Mexico	3.2%	1.2%	+1.4 pts ᴷ