World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · June 26, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-06-26 00:50:09 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | +1.5 | +0.4 | +1.5 pts ᴷ |
| Netherlands | +1.5 | +0.2 | +1.5 pts ᴷ |
| Mexico | +1.4 | +0.1 | +1.4 pts ᴷ |
| Brazil | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 pts ᴾ |
| Ecuador | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.4 pts ᴷ |
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 8.3% | 5.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Mexico | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Portugal | 9.9% | 8.2% | 1.7 pts |
| USA | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Congo DR | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Iraq | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Norway | 2.4% | 3.1% | 0.8 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 19.4% | 19.1% | −0.9 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | 14.2% | 14.4% | −1.3 pts ᴾ |
| Spain | 13.4% | 13.9% | +0.0 pts ᴷ |
| England | 9.8% | 10.5% | −0.6 pts ᴷ |
| Portugal | 9.9% | 8.2% | +1.5 pts ᴷ |
| Netherlands | 8.3% | 5.7% | +1.5 pts ᴷ |
| Brazil | 5.8% | 5.7% | +0.5 pts ᴾ |
| Germany | 4.8% | 4.3% | −1.0 pts ᴾ |
| USA | 4.5% | 3.0% | −0.5 pts ᴷ |
| Mexico | 3.2% | 1.2% | +1.4 pts ᴷ |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-06-26 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.