World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	+1.7	+1.1	+1.7 pts ᴷ
Brazil	+0.7	+0.1	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-0.3	+0.5	+0.5 pts ᴾ
Switzerland	+0.5	+0.3	+0.5 pts ᴷ
France	+0.3	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	-0.9	-0.2	−0.9 pts ᴷ
Mexico	-0.4	-0.1	−0.4 pts ᴷ
England	+0.0	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Japan	+0.0	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Morocco	+0.0	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	5.0%	3.5%	1.6 pts
Netherlands	6.8%	5.5%	1.4 pts
France	20.3%	19.4%	1.0 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Mexico	1.8%	1.1%	0.6 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	20.3%	19.4%	+0.3 pts ᴷ
Argentina	15.2%	15.8%	+1.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.4%	13.9%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
England	10.4%	10.5%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Portugal	8.4%	7.8%	−0.9 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	6.8%	5.5%	+0.5 pts ᴾ
Brazil	5.7%	5.1%	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Germany	5.3%	5.3%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
USA	5.0%	3.5%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.9%	3.1%	+0.1 pts ᴾ