World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · June 24, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-06-24 00:50:10 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
| Team | Kalshi Δ | Polymarket Δ | Largest move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | +2.3 | +1.3 | +2.3 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | -0.3 | +1.3 | +1.3 pts ᴾ |
| Norway | +0.7 | +1.1 | +1.1 pts ᴾ |
| Netherlands | +0.5 | -0.5 | +0.5 pts ᴷ |
| Mexico | +0.4 | +0.0 | +0.4 pts ᴷ |
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.1 pts |
| USA | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Portugal | 9.3% | 8.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Argentina | 13.5% | 14.6% | 1.1 pts |
| France | 20.0% | 19.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Iraq | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Czechia | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 20.0% | 19.1% | −0.7 pts ᴾ |
| Spain | 13.3% | 13.9% | −0.5 pts ᴷ |
| Argentina | 13.5% | 14.6% | +1.3 pts ᴾ |
| England | 10.4% | 10.8% | −1.9 pts ᴷ |
| Portugal | 9.3% | 8.1% | +2.3 pts ᴷ |
| Netherlands | 7.1% | 5.0% | +0.5 pts ᴷ |
| Germany | 5.2% | 5.3% | −0.3 pts ᴾ |
| Brazil | 5.0% | 5.1% | −0.7 pts ᴷ |
| USA | 4.8% | 3.5% | −0.1 pts ᴾ |
| Norway | 2.9% | 3.0% | +1.1 pts ᴾ |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-06-24 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.