World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	+2.3	+0.0	+2.3 pts ᴷ
Norway	+0.7	+0.0	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	+0.5	+0.0	+0.5 pts ᴷ
Mexico	+0.4	+0.0	+0.4 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	-1.9	+0.0	−1.9 pts ᴷ
Brazil	-0.7	+0.0	−0.7 pts ᴷ
Spain	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Senegal	-0.4	+0.0	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Argentina	-0.3	+0.0	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Portugal	9.3%	6.8%	2.5 pts
England	10.4%	12.6%	2.2 pts
Netherlands	7.1%	5.5%	1.6 pts
USA	4.8%	3.5%	1.3 pts
Norway	2.9%	1.9%	1.0 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	20.0%	19.8%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Spain	13.3%	13.9%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	13.5%	13.4%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
England	10.4%	12.6%	−1.9 pts ᴷ
Portugal	9.3%	6.8%	+2.3 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	7.1%	5.5%	+0.5 pts ᴷ
Germany	5.2%	5.7%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Brazil	5.0%	5.5%	−0.7 pts ᴷ
USA	4.8%	3.5%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.9%	1.9%	+0.7 pts ᴷ