World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
France	+0.1	+1.1	+1.1 pts ᴾ
England	-0.1	+0.9	+0.9 pts ᴾ
Argentina	-0.2	+0.5	+0.5 pts ᴾ
Germany	+0.2	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Uruguay	+0.3	-0.2	+0.3 pts ᴷ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	-1.9	-1.4	−1.9 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	-0.2	-0.7	−0.7 pts ᴾ
Ecuador	-0.4	-0.3	−0.4 pts ᴷ
Portugal	-0.1	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	-0.3	-0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.6%	2.1%	1.5 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Portugal	11.5%	10.8%	0.8 pts
Mexico	1.9%	1.2%	0.6 pts
Uruguay	1.2%	0.7%	0.6 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
France	16.8%	17.2%	+1.1 pts ᴾ
Spain	15.0%	14.6%	−1.9 pts ᴷ
Portugal	11.5%	10.8%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
England	10.3%	10.5%	+0.9 pts ᴾ
Argentina	8.7%	8.5%	+0.5 pts ᴾ
Brazil	6.7%	6.7%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Germany	6.1%	6.3%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	4.8%	4.5%	−0.7 pts ᴾ
USA	3.6%	2.1%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.2%	2.5%	−0.3 pts ᴷ