World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Germany	+0.8	+0.9	+0.9 pts ᴾ
Portugal	+0.7	+0.5	+0.7 pts ᴷ
Japan	+0.0	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ
Ivory Coast	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Australia	+0.1	+0.2	+0.2 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Brazil	-0.2	-0.9	−0.9 pts ᴾ
Türkiye	-0.4	-0.9	−0.9 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	-0.8	+0.3	−0.8 pts ᴷ
Spain	+0.4	-0.5	−0.5 pts ᴾ
France	-0.5	+0.0	−0.5 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
USA	3.9%	2.1%	1.8 pts
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Argentina	8.9%	8.0%	0.9 pts
Spain	16.9%	16.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
England	10.4%	9.7%	0.7 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
Spain	16.9%	16.1%	−0.5 pts ᴾ
France	16.7%	16.1%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Portugal	11.6%	11.1%	+0.7 pts ᴷ
England	10.4%	9.7%	+0.0 pts ᴷ
Argentina	8.9%	8.0%	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Brazil	7.0%	6.8%	−0.9 pts ᴾ
Germany	5.9%	6.0%	+0.9 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	5.0%	5.1%	−0.8 pts ᴷ
USA	3.9%	2.1%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.5%	2.5%	−0.1 pts ᴾ