World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	+0.2	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Argentina	-0.2	+0.3	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.2	+0.0	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Spain	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
England	+0.3	-0.4	−0.4 pts ᴾ
Japan	+0.0	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Morocco	-0.1	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+0.0	-0.2	−0.2 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.2%	0.8 pts
Germany	5.9%	5.2%	0.6 pts
Netherlands	4.6%	4.0%	0.6 pts
Spain	16.5%	16.1%	0.5 pts
Mexico	1.7%	1.2%	0.5 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
Spain	16.5%	16.1%	+0.1 pts ᴾ
France	16.2%	16.1%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
England	10.5%	10.5%	−0.4 pts ᴾ
Portugal	10.3%	10.2%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Argentina	8.7%	8.8%	+0.3 pts ᴾ
Brazil	8.1%	8.5%	+0.2 pts ᴷ
Germany	5.9%	5.2%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Netherlands	4.6%	4.0%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.5%	2.5%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Belgium	2.3%	2.2%	+0.0 pts ᴷ