World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Belgium	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ
Mexico	+0.1	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Japan	+0.1	-0.1	+0.1 pts ᴷ
Colombia	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Portugal	-0.5	-0.4	−0.5 pts ᴷ
England	-0.3	-0.2	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Brazil	-0.3	+0.1	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Germany	+0.0	-0.3	−0.3 pts ᴾ
France	-0.2	+0.0	−0.2 pts ᴷ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Iraq	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
England	10.2%	11.1%	0.9 pts
Netherlands	4.8%	4.0%	0.9 pts
Congo DR	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.0%	0.1%	0.9 pts
Portugal	10.5%	9.7%	0.8 pts
Mexico	2.1%	1.4%	0.8 pts
Czechia	1.0%	0.2%	0.8 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
Spain	16.5%	16.2%	+0.1 pts ᴷ
France	16.2%	16.2%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
England	10.2%	11.1%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Portugal	10.5%	9.7%	−0.5 pts ᴷ
Argentina	8.9%	8.8%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Brazil	7.8%	8.3%	−0.3 pts ᴷ
Germany	6.0%	5.5%	−0.3 pts ᴾ
Netherlands	4.8%	4.0%	−0.2 pts ᴷ
Norway	2.5%	2.5%	−0.1 pts ᴷ
Belgium	2.3%	2.1%	+0.1 pts ᴾ