{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-08","as_of":"2026-06-08T00:05:10Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-08.json","source_sha256":"8235f26b068e081ca071f85ad39c84669d3a0eddd6fbc163008e169402f1b287","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-08T00:05:10Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1723,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1477},{"venue":"polymarket","count":246}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1005,"polymarket":202,"total":1207},"last_updated":"2026-06-07T23:00:00+00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":99422382.58,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":354819422.43,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":8428172.1,"polymarket_usd":43986006.88,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-08T00:05:10Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.165,"oi_contracts":3064577.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1615,"volume_24h_usd":501469.17},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.008},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.168,0.162,0.167,0.17,0.169,0.171,0.172,0.171,0.167,0.167,0.167,0.166,0.165,0.164],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":42025.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":23769.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":17930.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":3852.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.165,"oi_contracts":3064577.84,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.162,"oi_contracts":4576003.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1615,"volume_24h_usd":729628.92},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.014,"polymarket":-0.009},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.175,0.172,0.169,0.167,0.168,0.169,0.174,0.176,0.171,0.164,0.163,0.164,0.162,0.164],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.79,"oi_contracts":6420.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":35328.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":20050.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":34236.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.162,"oi_contracts":4576003.45,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.102,"oi_contracts":3480427.46,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1105,"volume_24h_usd":740186.23},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.012,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.111,0.111,0.109,0.111,0.111,0.114,0.113,0.114,0.109,0.111,0.109,0.104,0.105,0.105],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":15023.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":22358.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":4534.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":4788.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.102,"oi_contracts":3480427.46,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.105,"oi_contracts":5968482.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0965,"volume_24h_usd":894291.35},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.005,"polymarket":-0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.096,0.098,0.098,0.094,0.089,0.093,0.106,0.104,0.093,0.094,0.095,0.091,0.096,0.11],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":56508.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":17262.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.71,"oi_contracts":16542.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":68074.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.105,"oi_contracts":5968482.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.089,"oi_contracts":2662117.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0885,"volume_24h_usd":249482.35},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.094,0.091,0.09,0.091,0.091,0.091,0.09,0.09,0.088,0.089,0.09,0.092,0.092,0.091],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":9077.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":31471.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":7164.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":37282.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.089,"oi_contracts":2662117.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.078,"oi_contracts":2499923.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0835,"volume_24h_usd":965965.72},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.012,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.095,0.095,0.092,0.092,0.092,0.092,0.09,0.09,0.086,0.086,0.085,0.084,0.081,0.081],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":12055.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":7052.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":11257.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.71,"oi_contracts":6222.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.078,"oi_contracts":2499923.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2332885.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0545,"volume_24h_usd":790641.75},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.051,0.051,0.051,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.058,0.058,0.058,0.058,0.06,0.06],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":6210.12,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.71,"oi_contracts":4902.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":4042.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":8459.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2332885.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.048,"oi_contracts":3594848.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0395,"volume_24h_usd":1000721.3},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.035,0.036,0.037,0.04,0.04,0.044,0.043,0.042,0.043,0.041,0.039,0.041,0.047,0.05],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":7500.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":31170.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":63444.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.2,"oi_contracts":13205.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.048,"oi_contracts":3594848.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":2697901.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0255,"volume_24h_usd":1181950.92},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.022,0.023,0.023,0.024,0.024,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.026,0.025,0.026,0.026],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":9392.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.53,"oi_contracts":12549.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":7970.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":12914.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.025,"oi_contracts":2697901.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":2593478.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0205,"volume_24h_usd":2895844.77},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.021,0.021,0.025,0.023,0.024,0.023,0.023,0.021,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.02,0.023,0.023],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":6608.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":17372.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1268.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.35,"oi_contracts":18750.49,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":2593478.1,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.021,"oi_contracts":5267029.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"volume_24h_usd":1914316.51},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.007,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.014,0.014,0.013,0.014,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.014,0.019,0.02],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":47007.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":46050.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":40176.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":60349.95,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.021,"oi_contracts":5267029.58,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":2607060.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"volume_24h_usd":1036186.29},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.016,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.014,0.013,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.015],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":30029.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":19086.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":16935.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":13600.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":2607060.57,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":2048448.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0185,"volume_24h_usd":3075829.61},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.018,0.018,0.018,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.019],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":20804.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":8249.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":55420.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":22382.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":2048448.3,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":3395818.73,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0165,"volume_24h_usd":2681012.19},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.014,0.015,0.015,0.016,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.016,0.014,0.015],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":12537.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":15472.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":11660.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":8953.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":3395818.73,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":3975698.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0115,"volume_24h_usd":1471599.4},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.013,0.013,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.014,0.015,0.014,0.016,0.017,0.016],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":32924.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":34782.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.48,"oi_contracts":55486.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":27132.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.016,"oi_contracts":3975698.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Türkiye","slug":"turkey","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.012,"oi_contracts":2612366.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"volume_24h_usd":1015620.05},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.005},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.01,0.012,0.011,0.012],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":5258.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":8135.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5805.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":5271.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.012,"oi_contracts":2612366.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":2032589.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0115,"volume_24h_usd":964021.03},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.012,0.012,0.011,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.011],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":523.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.04,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":1415.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":10920.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":4890.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":2032589.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":1757384.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"volume_24h_usd":908523.91},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.012,0.011,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.011,0.01,0.011,0.011],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":7674.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11756.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":2433.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":2004.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":1757384.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":46666.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":923616.24},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":302.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":1074.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":478.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":187.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":46666.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":68226.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":302100.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1349.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.09,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3742.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":4257.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":68226.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":19770.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":992277.13},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3793.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1417.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5993.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":19770.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":180889.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":986243.71},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1378.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1069.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1663.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":7431.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":180889.66,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2673333.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0095,"volume_24h_usd":1170401.55},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.009,0.009,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":9108.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":12237.37,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":12709.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":3086.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2673333.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":2694882.09,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"volume_24h_usd":1196468.41},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":32005.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":10672.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5596.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":8516.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":2694882.09,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":1081500.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"volume_24h_usd":871308.59},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1611.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":12922.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":2172.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":5602.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":1081500.72,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":1399066.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":723433.73},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":777.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":267.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1000.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.26,"oi_contracts":6071.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":1399066.29,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":1324028.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":1233259.86},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.005,0.005,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.006,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":6209.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":954.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":1177.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":12096.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.005,"oi_contracts":1324028.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":2333444.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":821560.99},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.004,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3261.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":3636.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1042.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":14688.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":2333444.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":1708912.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":955185.08},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.004,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":952.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11032.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":15526.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":509.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":1708912.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1955801.12,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":1305962.14},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":2960.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":14619.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4267.96,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1084.32,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1955801.12,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":850784.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":687104.38},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":598.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":1321.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":1903.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":850784.52,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":681474.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":496675.31},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3449.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1297.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1003.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":1414.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":681474.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1724172.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":632921.64},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":654.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":4463.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1724172.64,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":972815.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":948850.91},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":672.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":2676.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":260.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":4538.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":972815.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1842129.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":869229.04},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":3860.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":613.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":8144.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1842129.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1681211.76,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":699611.41},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":582.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":3248.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6817.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":986.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1681211.76,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1924822.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":884918.52},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":1915.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1445.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":1045.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1924822.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":636758.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":528046.39},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":110.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":281.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":7722.46,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":280.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":636758.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":428275.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":152029.05},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":4839.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":10769.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1540.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":1125.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":428275.11,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":518510.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":208568.23},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":2047.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":336.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":518510.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":612227.74},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3259.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":808.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":934929.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":1206676.1},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":271.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2815.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":934929.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":338416.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":165146.05},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":5621.44,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7801.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1310.81,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":338416.56,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":285696.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":175000.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":1376.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":379.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":285696.23,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":640543.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":70070.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1280.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":1147.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.03,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":501.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1489.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":640543.41,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":211544.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":85000.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":11217.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7894.51,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":166.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":null,"has_24h":true,"has_7d":false}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":211544.81,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. 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