Cumulative market-implied pricing of an OpenAI IPO announcement, across 9 dated thresholds on Kalshi.
as of 2026-09-18 10:00:00 UTC
Live record — it updates as prices move; not a citation target. To cite a fixed point in time, use a dated record from the Archive below.
Market-implied median
More likely than not by Before Jun 1, 2027 (54.0% cumulative).
The first listed threshold whose cumulative probability crosses 50%. Derived from the prices below; not interpolated.
Price ladder — cumulative by date
Observable prediction capital
Capital is shown per threshold above (opc_ladder_v1: floor of raw open interest, open interest contracts). No single total: a cumulative ladder’s nested thresholds overlap, so summing them would double-count committed capital. The total is therefore null by construction, not missing.
Archive — dated records
Each dated record is an immutable, citable snapshot.
Cite this record
live · not citable This is the live record — it updates as prices move. To cite a fixed point in time, use a dated record from the Archive above; each carries an immutable SHA-256.