OpenAI IPO Timing — 2026-06-24

Cumulative market-implied pricing of an OpenAI IPO announcement, across 12 dated thresholds on Kalshi.

as of 2026-06-24 00:00:00 UTC

kalshiopen interest contractsleg: Ladderopc_ladder_v1

Immutable dated record — the ladder as it stood on 2026-06-24. Citable; see provenance below.

Market-implied median

More likely than not by Before Dec 1, 2026 (56.0% cumulative).

The first listed threshold whose cumulative probability crosses 50%. Derived from the prices below; not interpolated.

Price ladder — cumulative by date

ThresholdCumulative market-implied priceImpliedOPC (contracts)
Before Jul 1, 2026
1.0%
95.2K
Before Aug 1, 2026
2.0%
79.9K
Before Sep 1, 2026
5.0%
74.7K
Before Oct 1, 2026
25.0%
32.5K
Before Nov 1, 2026
47.0%
25.4K
Before Dec 1, 2026
56.0%
21.8K
Before Jan 1, 2027
62.0%
33.6K
Before Feb 1, 2027
69.0%
7.1K
Before Mar 1, 2027
74.0%
7.2K
Before Apr 1, 2027
78.0%
3.9K
Before May 1, 2027
84.0%
3.6K
Before Jun 1, 2027
89.0%
4.7K

Observable prediction capital

Capital is shown per threshold above (opc_ladder_v1: floor of raw open interest, open interest contracts). No single total: a cumulative ladder’s nested thresholds overlap, so summing them would double-count committed capital. The total is therefore null by construction, not missing.

Cite this record

immutable · citable This is a dated record: a fixed, immutable snapshot of the ladder as it stood on 2026-06-24. It will not change.

Download JSON
Canonical date2026-06-24
As of2026-06-24 00:00:00 UTC
Methodologyopc_ladder_v1
SHA-256967ab5907be76888e60b967bfc275fe33450e382967251699da8e53f40534bc5

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