World Cup — Daily Record

Biggest movers — 24h, per venue

▲ Risers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Spain	+0.1	+0.8	+0.8 pts ᴾ

▼ Fallers

Team	Kalshi Δ	Polymarket Δ	Largest move
Argentina	-0.2	-1.0	−1.0 pts ᴾ

Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.

Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Argentina	41.8%	40.6%	1.2 pts
Spain	58.7%	59.2%	0.5 pts

Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.

Market consensus — what the market believes

Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.

Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
Spain	58.7%	59.2%	+0.8 pts ᴾ
Argentina	41.8%	40.6%	−1.0 pts ᴾ