{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-18","as_of":"2026-07-18T00:50:14Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-18.json","source_sha256":"3dccfbbde0ccae6b5ac64f3749f63b2628e82bb65347574e35ba6e49982ab036","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-18T00:50:14Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1913,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1293},{"venue":"polymarket","count":620}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":1019,"polymarket":459,"total":1478},"last_updated":"2026-07-18T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":174052363.02,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":39885093.14,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":37089950.62,"polymarket_usd":7286373.47,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-18T00:50:14Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.587,"oi_contracts":30954479.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.5915,"liquidity_usd":10120780.69,"volume_24h_usd":1429648.15},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":34.32,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":52.99,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.008},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.374,"polymarket":0.381},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.451,"polymarket":0.454},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204,0.205,0.208,0.58,0.572,0.586],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.418,"oi_contracts":59236849.05,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.4055,"liquidity_usd":8977771.55,"volume_24h_usd":3072244.74},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":65.68,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":47.01,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.234,"polymarket":0.224},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.303,"polymarket":0.29},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18,0.182,0.175,0.194,0.427,0.42],"polymarket":[]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.57,"oi_contracts":2007973.67,"volume_24h_contracts":67746.64,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.58,"liquidity_usd":354143.98,"volume_24h_usd":211545.27},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.02,"polymarket":0.2405},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.18,"polymarket":0.2035},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":1997123.3,"volume_24h_contracts":62178.63,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.415,"liquidity_usd":246297.89,"volume_24h_usd":157785.19},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.01,"polymarket":-0.15},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.04,"polymarket":-0.02},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lamine 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This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}