World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · June 4, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-06-04 00:00:00 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
No risers above the threshold in this record.
▼ Fallers
No fallers above the threshold in this record.
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Congo DR | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9 pts |
| France | 16.3% | 17.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Spain | 16.7% | 16.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Czechia | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8 pts |
| England | 10.9% | 11.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Japan | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.4 pts |
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 16.3% | 17.1% | — |
| Spain | 16.7% | 16.0% | — |
| England | 10.9% | 11.5% | — |
| Portugal | 9.5% | 9.6% | — |
| Argentina | 9.0% | 8.9% | — |
| Brazil | 8.5% | 8.2% | — |
| Germany | 5.8% | 5.5% | — |
| Netherlands | 3.9% | 4.0% | — |
| Norway | 2.6% | 2.5% | — |
| Belgium | 2.0% | 1.9% | — |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-06-04 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.