World Cup — Daily Record
Frozen daily record · May 29, 2026 · snapshot as of 2026-05-29 00:00:00 UTC · immutable · binding: informal (slug)
Biggest movers — 24h, per venue
▲ Risers
No risers above the threshold in this record.
▼ Fallers
No fallers above the threshold in this record.
Change since the prior daily snapshot, in percentage points, per venue — never blended. A dash means the venue did not price the team. Not a forecast.
Cross-venue divergence — where the venues disagreed
No team is priced on both venues for this record.
Both venue prices shown, never averaged. Largest absolute gaps first.
Market consensus — what the market believes
Implied championship probability by venue — Kalshi gold, Polymarket blue, never blended. The 24h column is each team's largest single-venue move vs the prior daily mark, tagged ᴷ/ᴾ.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 16.9% | — | — |
| France | 16.8% | — | — |
| England | 11.1% | — | — |
| Brazil | 9.2% | — | — |
| Argentina | 9.1% | — | — |
| Portugal | 8.9% | — | — |
| Germany | 5.6% | — | — |
| Netherlands | 4.0% | — | — |
| Belgium | 2.4% | — | — |
| Norway | 2.4% | — | — |
This page is a frozen daily projection of the World Cup consensus record. The machine-readable record: /api/public/world-cup/archive/2026-05-29 · indexed at /api/public/world-cup/archive.