VolRocObservatory

Calibration

Kalshi \u00b7 Crypto \u00b7 15-minute
Layer C · latest view

Mark date 2026-06-25 · sealed 2026-06-25T19:05:49Z UTC · regenerated nightly · tracks the newest sealed vintage

Brier

0.1488

lower is better

No-skill baseline

0.2498

climatology · p(1−p)

Coverage

73.4%

legs with a price trajectory

Scored legs

7,518

of 10,235 resolved

As of

2026-06-25

compute as-of date

Skill is the gap between the two leftmost facts: a Brier below the no-skill baseline is the only claim made here. No per-market call is derived above the fact line.

Reliability — measured

0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 0-1m · pred 0.002 · obs 0.000 · n=709 0-1m · pred 0.021 · obs 0.000 · n=76 0-1m · pred 0.973 · obs 0.971 · n=69 0-1m · pred 0.998 · obs 0.998 · n=643 15-60m · pred 0.102 · obs 0.084 · n=274 15-60m · pred 0.235 · obs 0.234 · n=329 15-60m · pred 0.353 · obs 0.326 · n=365 15-60m · pred 0.447 · obs 0.415 · n=299 15-60m · pred 0.527 · obs 0.517 · n=327 15-60m · pred 0.622 · obs 0.599 · n=332 15-60m · pred 0.732 · obs 0.741 · n=378 15-60m · pred 0.877 · obs 0.891 · n=313 15-60m · pred 0.997 · obs 1.000 · n=33 5-15m · pred 0.095 · obs 0.067 · n=402 5-15m · pred 0.240 · obs 0.275 · n=411 5-15m · pred 0.350 · obs 0.364 · n=472 5-15m · pred 0.444 · obs 0.450 · n=389 5-15m · pred 0.530 · obs 0.547 · n=437 5-15m · pred 0.623 · obs 0.615 · n=395 5-15m · pred 0.732 · obs 0.781 · n=374 5-15m · pred 0.881 · obs 0.894 · n=388 predicted (market price) realized frequency τ band 0-1m 5-15m 15-60m

Each point is a (τ band × price bin) bucket, radius ∝n. On the dashed diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = the market under-priced the outcome; below = over-priced. Kalshi-native.

Calibration buckets — kept

τ bandprice binnpredictedrealizedgapbrier
0-1m0-0.0097090.0020.000-0.00190.0000
0-1m0.009-0.17760.0210.000-0.02060.0010
0-1m0.79-0.99690.9730.971-0.00180.0251
0-1m0.99-0.9996430.9980.998+0.00050.0015
5-15m0.009-0.174020.0950.067-0.02730.0609
5-15m0.17-0.294110.2400.275+0.03450.1978
5-15m0.29-0.44720.3500.364+0.01400.2313
5-15m0.4-0.483890.4440.450+0.00570.2468
5-15m0.48-0.574370.5300.547+0.01720.2490
5-15m0.57-0.673950.6230.615-0.00770.2371
5-15m0.67-0.793740.7320.781+0.04860.1734
5-15m0.79-0.993880.8810.894+0.01360.0895
15-60m0.009-0.172740.1020.084-0.01830.0776
15-60m0.17-0.293290.2350.234-0.00080.1785
15-60m0.29-0.43650.3530.326-0.02700.2197
15-60m0.4-0.482990.4470.415-0.03200.2432
15-60m0.48-0.573270.5270.517-0.01030.2479
15-60m0.57-0.673320.6220.599-0.02230.2402
15-60m0.67-0.793780.7320.741+0.00920.1917
15-60m0.79-0.993130.8770.891+0.01440.0982
15-60m0.99-0.999330.9971.000+0.00340.0000

Suppressed buckets — disclosed

21 bucket(s) held fewer than min_bucket_n=30 observations. They are omitted from the curve and the kept table — self-omitted, never plotted as fabricated reliability points. dash ≠ zero.

0-1m · 0.17-0.29 · n=10-1m · 0.29-0.4 · n=10-1m · 0.4-0.48 · n=10-1m · 0.57-0.67 · n=30-1m · 0.67-0.79 · n=21-5m · 0-0.009 · n=31-5m · 0.79-0.99 · n=11-5m · 0.99-0.999 · n=75-15m · 0-0.009 · n=265-15m · 0.99-0.999 · n=2115-60m · 0-0.009 · n=2160-240m · 0.009-0.17 · n=160-240m · 0.17-0.29 · n=360-240m · 0.29-0.4 · n=160-240m · 0.57-0.67 · n=160-240m · 0.79-0.99 · n=2240-1440m · 0.009-0.17 · n=1240-1440m · 0.17-0.29 · n=1240-1440m · 0.29-0.4 · n=1240-1440m · 0.48-0.57 · n=1240-1440m · 0.57-0.67 · n=4

Provenance — write-once

Content SHA-2567c6554000e635fd32b4299621647b58f82404bbe7ce25d966fcc81a993947eb8
Outcome SHA-2564153fb43ddb8ffd3bab40f09ce634ff407beb5ee1801531ece81f4e9c953cdf9
Resolver records SHA-256cc5003c0f8b96d2d505169880743beaf5f6f313ce58bae0c647162f1fcbe1fec
Settled yes / no4,997 / 5,238
Resolved legs10,235
Resolution basissettlement_ts
Settlement sourcehttps://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2
Window2026-06-04T00:00:00Z → 2026-06-25
Resolver coderesolve_outcomes/v1.0.0
Compute versionv1
Resolver run ID20260625T185706Z
Backfilledno
Sealed at2026-06-25T19:05:49Z

Methodology

A reliability measurement over 10,235 prediction-market legs, binned by time-to-resolution (τ, basis realized) and contemporaneous market price, then compared against realized settlement. The Brier score is the mean squared error of the market price as a probability; the no-skill baseline is climatology base_rate*(1-base_rate) = 0.2498. Lower Brier than baseline is the only skill claim made.

  • Venue-native. Kalshi only; not canonical-leg-bound and never blended with another venue.
  • Suppression. Buckets with fewer than min_bucket_n=30 observations are disclosed but omitted from the curve.
  • Coverage = 73.4%. The miss is capture density against a short market lifetime: a leg snapshotted outside its active window has no price trajectory to score. Per-family join rate: KXBTC15M 76.8%, KXDOGE15M 69.5%, KXETH15M 76.6%, KXSOL15M 72.9%, KXXRP15M 71.2%. The bias is published, not hidden.
  • Time-arrow. The Mark carries no as_of and only legs resolved on/before the as-of date — no record depends on its own future.

Archive — sealed vintages

Each dated page is a Layer-A immutable vintage, citable by its content SHA-256. This latest view (Layer C) tracks the newest row.

The archive is the product; this page is a projection. Calibration measures the price, not the platform. No call is made above the fact line.

About VolRoc Latest calibration Machine-readable Methodology API Observational market statistics. Not a broker.