Mutually exclusive prediction-market outcomes for AI: Which Lab Confirms an IPO First — 2 legs on Kalshi, capital-ranked.
as of 2026-06-29 23:00:00 UTC
Immutable dated record — the field as it stood on 2026-06-29. Citable; see provenance below.
Current leader
Anthropic leads at 83.0% · 52% of capital.
Leader = the leg with the largest capital share. Probability and capital can diverge — see Divergence below.
Leaderboard — mutually exclusive legs
Observable prediction capital
Event OPC ≈ 81.5K open interest contracts
A partition’s legs are mutually exclusive, so summed open interest is a legitimate event total (gross_locked_v1: floor of Σ raw OI × $1 collateral) — unlike a ladder, where summing would double-count. Per-leg capital is on the leaderboard above. Kalshi contracts and Polymarket USD are never blended.
Neither by 2040: ~2.0% (derived complement, 1 − Σ legs). Projection only — no venue contract lists it, so it is non-settling and never a tradeable leg.
Divergence — capital vs probability
Where capital share and implied probability disagree, open interest is tracking attention and two-sided disagreement, not the odds — the capital-vs-probability signature. Venue-scoped; never blended across venues.
Methodology
This is a Partition: mutually exclusive, exhaustive legs over one event; exactly one resolves YES (opc_partition_v1). Capital shares use venue-native denominators (Kalshi open interest), each summing to 100%, never blended. The leader is the largest-capital leg. The overround/underround (Σ implied) is shown, never normalised away. The complement (1 − Σ legs) is a derived projection, not a Member. Facts are archived; interpretations (leader, shares) are surface-derived.
Cite this record
immutable · citable This is a dated record: a fixed, immutable snapshot of the ladder as it stood on 2026-06-29. It will not change.
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