Mutually exclusive prediction-market outcomes for AI: Which Lab Confirms an IPO First — 2 legs on Kalshi, capital-ranked.
as of 2026-07-15 01:00:00 UTC
Live record — it updates as prices move; not a citation target. Cite a dated record below.
Current leader
Anthropic leads at 82.0% · 50% of capital.
Leader = the leg with the largest capital share. Probability and capital can diverge — see Divergence below.
Leaderboard — mutually exclusive legs
Observable prediction capital
Event OPC ≈ 78.5K open interest contracts
A partition’s legs are mutually exclusive, so summed open interest is a legitimate event total (gross_locked_v1: floor of Σ raw OI × $1 collateral) — unlike a ladder, where summing would double-count. Per-leg capital is on the leaderboard above. Kalshi contracts and Polymarket USD are never blended.
Neither by 2040: ~0.0% (derived complement, 1 − Σ legs). Projection only — no venue contract lists it, so it is non-settling and never a tradeable leg.
Divergence — capital vs probability
Where capital share and implied probability disagree, open interest is tracking attention and two-sided disagreement, not the odds — the capital-vs-probability signature. Venue-scoped; never blended across venues.
Archive — dated records
Each dated record is an immutable, citable snapshot.
Methodology
This is a Partition: mutually exclusive, exhaustive legs over one event; exactly one resolves YES (opc_partition_v1). Capital shares use venue-native denominators (Kalshi open interest), each summing to 100%, never blended. The leader is the largest-capital leg. The overround/underround (Σ implied) is shown, never normalised away. The complement (1 − Σ legs) is a derived projection, not a Member. Facts are archived; interpretations (leader, shares) are surface-derived.
Cite this record
live · not citable This is the live record — it updates as prices move. To cite a fixed point in time, use a dated record from the Archive above; each carries an immutable SHA-256.