Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-10-06

Prediction Markets — 2026-10-06

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-10-06T00:05:03.425617+00:00

State of the System

On October 6, 2026, VolRoc recorded 234,498 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $835.0M in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 5.6% and open interest rose 13.9% (vs October 5, 2026). Politics & Elections was the largest domain by open interest (32%), ahead of Sports (12%); together they accounted for 44% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 89% of active markets and Polymarket 11%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-10-06

As of 2026-10-06 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
234,498
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$835.0M
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
10,991
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
89% / 11%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Mixed / Multi-category
203,033
Sports
12,475
Other
9,753
Politics & Elections
5,196
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,245
Technology & AI
755
World & Geopolitics
666
Entertainment & Culture
370
Companies & Business
314
Economics & Inflation
289
Climate & Weather
225
Monetary Policy
129
Science & Health
48

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 89%
Polymarket 11%
Kalshi 208,401 markets · $422.2M OI  ·  Polymarket 26,097 markets · $412.8M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 234,498.

Largest Kalshi Series

Cross-category multi-markets
192,221
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0
10,812
Ncaafspread
298
Ncaaftotal
192
Nflspread
136
Btcd
109
Nhlgoal
96
Mlbhrr
76
Mlbhr
74
Nflrec
73
Mlbhit
66
Nhltotal
63

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for October 6, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — October 6, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-10-06/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.