Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-10-05

Prediction Markets — 2026-10-05

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-10-05T00:05:03.355755+00:00

State of the System

On October 5, 2026, VolRoc recorded 248,405 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $732.9M in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 34.7% and open interest fell 41.0% (vs October 4, 2026). Politics & Elections was the largest domain by open interest (37%), ahead of Sports (12%); together they accounted for 49% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 89% of active markets and Polymarket 11%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-10-05

As of 2026-10-05 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
248,405
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$732.9M
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
8,126
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
89% / 11%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Mixed / Multi-category
220,012
Sports
11,070
Other
8,214
Politics & Elections
5,361
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,144
Technology & AI
755
World & Geopolitics
666
Entertainment & Culture
343
Companies & Business
310
Economics & Inflation
226
Monetary Policy
129
Climate & Weather
127
Science & Health
48

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 89%
Polymarket 11%
Kalshi 222,016 markets · $318.5M OI  ·  Polymarket 26,389 markets · $414.5M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 248,405.

Largest Kalshi Series

Cross-category multi-markets
186,439
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0
33,573
Btcd
99
Ncaafspread
87
Mlbhrr
74
Mlbhit
71
Nhlgoal
65
Mlbtb
58
Ncaaftotal
57
Mlbhr
57
Atpmatch
52
Mlbks
39

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for October 5, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — October 5, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-10-05/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.