Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-07-07

Prediction Markets — 2026-07-07

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-07-07T00:05:03.795452+00:00

State of the System

On July 7, 2026, VolRoc recorded 148,075 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $2.05B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 46.8% and open interest fell 15.6% (vs July 6, 2026). Sports was the largest domain by open interest (53%), ahead of Politics & Elections (19%); together they accounted for 72% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 99% of active markets and Polymarket 1%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-07-07

As of 2026-07-07 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
148,075
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$2.05B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
11,164
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
99% / 1%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
106,576
Mixed / Multi-category
22,112
Other
11,288
Politics & Elections
3,668
Entertainment & Culture
2,271
Crypto & Digital Assets
642
Economics & Inflation
584
Companies & Business
384
Monetary Policy
290
Climate & Weather
94
Technology & AI
80
World & Geopolitics
55
Science & Health
31

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 99%
Polymarket 1%
Kalshi 146,604 markets · $1.26B OI  ·  Polymarket 1,471 markets · $796.2M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 148,075.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
98,618
Cross-category multi-markets
22,112
Midterm control
816
Music — artist streams
795
U.S. House races
588
Nextteamnba
419
Pgatour
335
NFL — next team moves
254
California primaries
245
Nextteammlb
215
Primarymov
204
Nflwins
196

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for July 7, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — July 7, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-07-07/

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