Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-07-06

Prediction Markets — 2026-07-06

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-07-06T00:05:02.732909+00:00

State of the System

On July 6, 2026, VolRoc recorded 278,215 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $2.43B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets rose 21.0% and open interest rose 6.1% (vs July 5, 2026). Sports was the largest domain by open interest (57%), ahead of Politics & Elections (16%); together they accounted for 73% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 99% of active markets and Polymarket 1%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-07-06

As of 2026-07-06 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
278,215
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$2.43B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
9,925
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
99% / 1%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
236,602
Mixed / Multi-category
22,234
Other
11,375
Politics & Elections
3,654
Entertainment & Culture
2,244
Economics & Inflation
596
Crypto & Digital Assets
593
Companies & Business
379
Monetary Policy
285
Climate & Weather
88
Technology & AI
80
World & Geopolitics
55
Science & Health
30

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 99%
Polymarket 1%
Kalshi 276,744 markets · $1.64B OI  ·  Polymarket 1,471 markets · $796.2M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 278,215.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
229,008
Cross-category multi-markets
22,234
Midterm control
815
Music — artist streams
792
U.S. House races
587
Nextteamnba
475
NFL — next team moves
254
California primaries
245
Nextteammlb
213
Primarymov
203
Nflwins
192
Flprimary
183

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for July 6, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — July 6, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-07-06/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.