Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-07-05

Prediction Markets — 2026-07-05

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-07-05T00:05:03.695425+00:00

State of the System

On July 5, 2026, VolRoc recorded 229,844 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $2.29B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 18.6% and open interest fell 7.3% (vs July 4, 2026). Sports was the largest domain by open interest (53%), ahead of Politics & Elections (17%); together they accounted for 70% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 99% of active markets and Polymarket 1%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-07-05

As of 2026-07-05 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
229,844
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$2.29B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
10,840
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
99% / 1%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
175,173
Mixed / Multi-category
35,243
Other
11,466
Politics & Elections
3,644
Entertainment & Culture
2,244
Economics & Inflation
588
Crypto & Digital Assets
560
Companies & Business
375
Monetary Policy
284
Climate & Weather
102
Technology & AI
80
World & Geopolitics
55
Science & Health
30

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 99%
Polymarket 1%
Kalshi 228,373 markets · $1.50B OI  ·  Polymarket 1,471 markets · $796.2M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 229,844.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
166,876
Cross-category multi-markets
35,243
Midterm control
814
Music — artist streams
792
U.S. House races
587
Nextteamnba
473
NFL — next team moves
254
California primaries
241
Nextteammlb
211
Primarymov
203
Nflwins
191
Pgatour
187

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for July 5, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — July 5, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-07-05/

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