Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-10-12

Prediction Markets — 2026-10-12

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-10-12T00:05:03.695872+00:00

State of the System

On October 12, 2026, VolRoc recorded 301,337 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $825.1M in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 24.0% and open interest fell 33.4% (vs October 11, 2026). Politics & Elections was the largest domain by open interest (32%), ahead of Sports (10%); together they accounted for 42% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 92% of active markets and Polymarket 8%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-10-12

As of 2026-10-12 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
301,337
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$825.1M
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
7,904
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
92% / 8%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Mixed / Multi-category
274,103
Sports
10,135
Other
8,179
Politics & Elections
5,149
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,169
Technology & AI
754
World & Geopolitics
666
Entertainment & Culture
343
Companies & Business
310
Economics & Inflation
229
Monetary Policy
128
Climate & Weather
124
Science & Health
48

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 92%
Polymarket 8%
Kalshi 276,062 markets · $414.8M OI  ·  Polymarket 25,275 markets · $410.3M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 301,337.

Largest Kalshi Series

Cross-category multi-markets
238,958
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0
35,145
Nhlgoal
108
Btcd
101
Ncaafspread
84
Nhlpts
55
Nflrecyds
54
Nbaspread
47
Ncaaftotal
45
Ethd
43
Nbatotal
39
Nhlast
39

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for October 12, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — October 12, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-10-12/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.