Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-10-02

Prediction Markets — 2026-10-02

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-10-02T00:05:03.125610+00:00

State of the System

On October 2, 2026, VolRoc recorded 342,600 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $2.29B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets rose 10.6% and open interest rose 4.6% (vs October 1, 2026). Politics & Elections was the largest domain by open interest (25%), ahead of Sports (17%); together they accounted for 43% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 92% of active markets and Polymarket 8%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-10-02

As of 2026-10-02 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
342,600
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$2.29B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
23,325
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
92% / 8%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Mixed / Multi-category
271,932
Other
26,357
Sports
25,639
Politics & Elections
10,024
Entertainment & Culture
3,086
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,364
Economics & Inflation
1,030
Technology & AI
840
Companies & Business
788
World & Geopolitics
696
Monetary Policy
501
Climate & Weather
263
Science & Health
80

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 92%
Polymarket 8%
Kalshi 313,931 markets · $1.85B OI  ·  Polymarket 28,669 markets · $447.8M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 342,600.

Largest Kalshi Series

Cross-category multi-markets
220,295
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0
51,637
Midterm control
1,653
Votegeneral
1,424
U.S. House races
671
Music — artist streams
624
Ncaafspread
623
Nflwins
437
Ncaafwins
434
Nextteamnba
426
Midtermvoteturn
365
Nfltd
359

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for October 2, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — October 2, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-10-02/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.