Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-08-06

Prediction Markets — 2026-08-06

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-08-06T00:05:04.305627+00:00

State of the System

On August 6, 2026, VolRoc recorded 158,383 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $1.33B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 8.6% and open interest fell 2.4% (vs August 5, 2026). Politics & Elections was the largest domain by open interest (37%), ahead of Sports (33%); together they accounted for 70% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 89% of active markets and Polymarket 11%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-08-06

As of 2026-08-06 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
158,383
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$1.33B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
17,364
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
89% / 11%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
76,790
Mixed / Multi-category
48,957
Other
18,492
Politics & Elections
6,234
Entertainment & Culture
2,646
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,422
Economics & Inflation
1,010
Technology & AI
966
Companies & Business
835
Monetary Policy
394
World & Geopolitics
372
Climate & Weather
189
Science & Health
76

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 89%
Polymarket 11%
Kalshi 140,669 markets · $907.1M OI  ·  Polymarket 17,714 markets · $424.7M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 158,383.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
61,770
Cross-category multi-markets
48,957
Midterm control
979
Music — artist streams
743
U.S. House races
605
Nextteamnba
492
Nflwins
283
NFL — next team moves
257
Mlbhr
243
Flprimary
207
Joinclub
206
Nextteammlb
201

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for August 6, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — August 6, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-08-06/

Get the daily statistics

A short daily read on the prediction-market universe across Kalshi and Polymarket. Join the list →

About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.