Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-07-21

Prediction Markets — 2026-07-21

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-07-21T00:05:03.265457+00:00

State of the System

On July 21, 2026, VolRoc recorded 173,060 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $1.45B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets rose 74.5% and open interest rose 20.3% (vs July 20, 2026). Sports was the largest domain by open interest (41%), ahead of Politics & Elections (31%); together they accounted for 73% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 76% of active markets and Polymarket 24%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-07-21

As of 2026-07-21 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
173,060
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$1.45B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
20,444
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
76% / 24%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
113,448
Other
26,992
Mixed / Multi-category
16,812
Politics & Elections
6,327
Entertainment & Culture
2,566
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,932
Climate & Weather
1,183
Companies & Business
1,169
Economics & Inflation
859
Technology & AI
746
World & Geopolitics
489
Monetary Policy
454
Science & Health
83

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 76%
Polymarket 24%
Kalshi 131,829 markets · $977.5M OI  ·  Polymarket 41,231 markets · $471.0M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 173,060.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
88,715
Cross-category multi-markets
16,812
Midterm control
871
Music — artist streams
764
U.S. House races
593
Nextteamnba
444
Mlbhr
272
NFL — next team moves
254
Nextteammlb
223
Nflwins
216
Flprimary
191
Mlbtotal
182

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for July 21, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — July 21, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-07-21/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.