Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-07-16

Prediction Markets — 2026-07-16

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-07-16T00:05:03.066149+00:00

State of the System

On July 16, 2026, VolRoc recorded 92,840 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $1.40B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 6.0% and open interest fell 3.9% (vs July 15, 2026). Sports was the largest domain by open interest (37%), ahead of Politics & Elections (33%); together they accounted for 70% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 61% of active markets and Polymarket 39%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-07-16

As of 2026-07-16 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
92,840
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$1.40B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
18,155
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
61% / 39%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
50,135
Other
24,038
Politics & Elections
6,338
Mixed / Multi-category
4,516
Entertainment & Culture
2,547
Crypto & Digital Assets
1,645
Companies & Business
921
Economics & Inflation
746
Technology & AI
487
World & Geopolitics
483
Climate & Weather
442
Monetary Policy
426
Science & Health
116

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 61%
Polymarket 39%
Kalshi 56,620 markets · $896.1M OI  ·  Polymarket 36,220 markets · $500.6M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 92,840.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
26,186
Cross-category multi-markets
4,516
Midterm control
854
Music — artist streams
780
U.S. House races
588
Nextteamnba
434
NFL — next team moves
254
Pgatour
245
Nextteammlb
221
Nflwins
205
Wcaward
196
Flprimary
189

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for July 16, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — July 16, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-07-16/

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About VolRoc Methodology API Archive World Cup Frozen at 00:00 UTC. Immutable daily record.