Observatory/ Archive/ 2026-07-02

Prediction Markets — 2026-07-02

Frozen at 00:00 UTC · recorded 2026-07-02T00:05:03.475455+00:00

State of the System

On July 2, 2026, VolRoc recorded 178,064 active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding $2.19B in combined open interest. Day over day, active markets fell 20.3% and open interest fell 3.9% (vs July 1, 2026). Sports was the largest domain by open interest (49%), ahead of Politics & Elections (17%); together they accounted for 66% of all open interest. Kalshi carried 99% of active markets and Polymarket 1%.
Deterministic · template v1 · 2026-07-02

As of 2026-07-02 · 00:00 UTC

Active Markets
178,064
00:00 UTC freeze
Open Interest
$2.19B
Kalshi OI + Polymarket liquidity
Markets Traded · 24h
12,728
with trading activity
Kalshi / Polymarket
99% / 1%
by active-market count

Domain Composition — 12 domains

Sports
131,313
Mixed / Multi-category
27,709
Other
11,104
Politics & Elections
3,645
Entertainment & Culture
2,227
Crypto & Digital Assets
648
Economics & Inflation
597
Companies & Business
287
Monetary Policy
283
Climate & Weather
88
Technology & AI
80
World & Geopolitics
55
Science & Health
28

Venue-agnostic subject taxonomy from Kalshi series prefixes and Polymarket title keywords. A residual Other bucket is reported honestly.

Venue Split

Kalshi 99%
Polymarket 1%
Kalshi 176,593 markets · $1.40B OI  ·  Polymarket 1,471 markets · $796.2M liquidity

Probability Distribution

0102030405060708090
Yes-price across both venues, 10 buckets from 0 to 100. n = 178,064.

Largest Kalshi Series

Sports — multi-game parlays
122,382
Cross-category multi-markets
27,709
Midterm control
797
Music — artist streams
796
U.S. House races
588
Nextteamnba
434
NFL — next team moves
254
Pgatour
242
California primaries
240
Primarymov
215
Nextteammlb
209
Nflwins
189

Kalshi market families (Polymarket is not series-structured).

About & Citation

This is the fixed-hour (00:00 UTC) state of every active market on Kalshi and Polymarket for July 2, 2026. The live Observatory shows the current diurnal value; this record is immutable. Open interest combines Kalshi open interest with Polymarket USD liquidity as comparable USD magnitudes. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket.

How to cite

“VolRoc Prediction Market Archive — July 2, 2026.” https://volroc.ai/prediction-markets/2026-07-02/

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