Capital Overview
Where political capital sits today
A measured snapshot of capital-backed belief across two venues. Kalshi open interest is counted in contracts; Polymarket activity in US dollars. The two are reported side by side and never combined.
Kalshi
across 3,304 priced markets
Polymarket
across 1,041 markets · thin overlay
Different units, never combined.
Active markets
Venue participation
Capital is concentrated in the presidential-nomination complex (62.7% of Kalshi politics OI) — a field, not a single market. Series-level rollups are reported per series and capped so no one market is read as “US politics capital.”
State of the field
What capital has formed
This Situation does not host a ranked field of its own. It points to the measured surfaces where belief is concentrated. Each opens its own record. Belief and agreement render on those pages as the field-level surfaces ship.
Democratic Nomination Democratic
39.5%Belief
Capital
Movement
Agreement
Republican Nomination Republican
15.9%Belief
Capital
Movement
Agreement
Presidency
14.5%Belief
Capital
Movement
Agreement
2026 Midterms Event · Nov 2026
18.4%House control
Senate control
State referents
Movement
Historical record
The archive begins today
Every belief state on this Observatory is frozen daily and preserved unchanged. The record is the permanent asset; today is its first entry.
The daily freeze runs at 00:00 UTC from this Observatory’s birth. Belief-on-earlier-dates and historical replay become available as depth accrues — they are this same surface scrubbed to a past reading, not a new one. Frozen records are never edited.
How this is measured
Methodology & sources
What this is. VolRoc is a neutral observatory of prediction markets. It records what capital-backed belief looks like across venues and preserves that record. It is not a sportsbook, a trading dashboard, or investment advice.
Facts vs. interpretation. Measured facts — open interest, market counts, prices — are archived. Interpretations are derived at the surface and labelled as such. A dash (—) means a value is not yet measured; it never means zero.
Venues are never blended. Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket activity is in US dollars. They are reported separately and are never summed, averaged, or normalised into a single number. Gold marks Kalshi; blue marks Polymarket, platform-wide.
Capital, not belief, leads at launch. This snapshot reports where capital sits (open interest). Per-venue belief and cross-venue agreement render on each field’s own page as those surfaces ship. The Observatory shows less than it has earned rather than more.
Source. Cross-venue current-state universe of 92,948 markets, snapshot 2026-06-08 16:00 UTC; 4,345 classified as US politics. Capital concentration: nomination complex 62.7%, presidency 14.5%, state races 12.0%, chamber control 6.4%.