{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-21","as_of":"2026-07-21T00:50:13Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-21.json","source_sha256":"5bd09cc4a41cd6d7be49472c00f35546c76b7f7d0838630a464de66729bb0cd4","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-21T00:50:13Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":58,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":55},{"venue":"polymarket","count":3}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":49,"polymarket":2,"total":51},"last_updated":"2026-07-21T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":263096.66,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":1314.68,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":256473.29,"polymarket_usd":88.41,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-21T00:50:13Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[],"history":{"has_24h":false,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[],"players_history":{"has_24h":false,"has_7d":true},"players_note":"Top Scorer (most-goals) ladder: per-player implied 'yes' price for leading the 2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}