{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-19","as_of":"2026-07-19T00:50:11Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-19.json","source_sha256":"8b38123836b441e0028ad73923fae85e85c0e424e8c9ccb8063b409f12e13bcf","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-19T00:50:11Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1527,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":983},{"venue":"polymarket","count":544}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":798,"polymarket":403,"total":1201},"last_updated":"2026-07-19T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":193652479.17,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":41014926.68,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":57700743.52,"polymarket_usd":13421362.31,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-19T00:50:11Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.587,"oi_contracts":32612937.65,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.5905,"liquidity_usd":7500739.92,"volume_24h_usd":2144613.89},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":31.54,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":50.03,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.383,"polymarket":0.386},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.453,"polymarket":0.454},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204,0.205,0.208,0.58,0.572,0.586,0.587],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.424,"oi_contracts":70773561.4,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.4095,"liquidity_usd":7493026.54,"volume_24h_usd":3186100.75},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":68.46,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":49.97,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.244,"polymarket":0.2265},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.316,"polymarket":0.292},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18,0.182,0.175,0.194,0.427,0.42,0.418],"polymarket":[]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.93,"oi_contracts":2648356.36,"volume_24h_contracts":1279776.88,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.935,"liquidity_usd":215243.88,"volume_24h_usd":1042764.9},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.51,"polymarket":0.52},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.38,"polymarket":0.46},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":5095578.5,"volume_24h_contracts":3653371.17,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.068,"liquidity_usd":330553.63,"volume_24h_usd":1783680.38},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.51,"polymarket":-0.512},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.37,"polymarket":-0.357},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Ferran 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Yamal","slug":"lamine-yamal","team":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":526034.13,"volume_24h_contracts":57949.26,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":151968.26,"volume_24h_usd":132087.6},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Lautaro Martinez","slug":"lautaro-martinez","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":154740.21,"volume_24h_contracts":10093.26,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":708072.25,"volume_24h_usd":null},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Mikel 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Doue","slug":"desire-doue","team":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"liquidity_usd":792616.29,"volume_24h_usd":11880.0},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":0.0},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}}],"players_history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true},"players_note":"Top Scorer (most-goals) ladder: per-player implied 'yes' price for leading the 2026 World Cup in goals — Kalshi's KXWCGOALLEADER tournament markets and Polymarket's equivalent top-scorer markets, resolved through the curated wc_players.json registry (allowlist; explicit aliases only, no fuzzy matching). This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}