{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-07-17","as_of":"2026-07-17T00:50:15Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-07-17.json","source_sha256":"4ed9ba2765a2c8b923b225dc4af3249fe9b5c21edef81fdec6b8cab9906a58b1","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-07-17T00:50:15Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":null,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1239},{"venue":"polymarket","count":null}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":959,"polymarket":null,"total":null},"last_updated":"2026-07-17T00:00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":143887387.28,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":null,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. 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Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-07-17T00:50:15Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.586,"oi_contracts":29958267.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.5835,"liquidity_usd":8103846.51,"volume_24h_usd":1489531.22},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":35.81,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":49.99,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.014,"polymarket":0.004},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.416,"polymarket":0.409},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.442,"polymarket":0.451},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.129,0.125,0.126,0.125,0.182,0.186,0.188,0.17,0.213,0.204,0.205,0.208,0.58,0.572],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.42,"oi_contracts":53701154.54,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.4155,"liquidity_usd":8107915.12,"volume_24h_usd":2465473.93},"kalshi_oi_share_pct":64.19,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":50.01,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.235,"polymarket":0.237},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":0.329,"polymarket":0.314},"spark":{"kalshi":[0.184,0.218,0.167,0.176,0.167,0.189,0.19,0.185,0.184,0.18,0.182,0.175,0.194,0.427],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":null,"polymarket":null,"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":null,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[]}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":null,"polymarket":null,"kalshi_oi_share_pct":null,"poly_liquidity_share_pct":null,"delta_24h":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"delta_30d":{"kalshi":null,"polymarket":null},"spark":{"kalshi":[],"polymarket":[]}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":true},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist.","players":[{"display_name":"Lionel Messi","slug":"lionel-messi","team":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.59,"oi_contracts":2001075.74,"volume_24h_contracts":936061.88,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.3395,"liquidity_usd":452064.0,"volume_24h_usd":42200.03},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.07,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.22,"polymarket":-0.036},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Kylian Mbappe","slug":"kylian-mbappe","team":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":1981114.81,"volume_24h_contracts":361581.04,"ticker":"KXWCGOALLEADER"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.565,"liquidity_usd":867488.39,"volume_24h_usd":66774.93},"movement":{"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.07,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.05,"polymarket":0.14},"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true}},{"display_name":"Harry 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This is the most-goals proposition as priced, not necessarily the official FIFA award (tiebreaker rules may differ). Venues are independent and never blended; a missing venue means no priced market, not zero. 'team' is the registry's hand-curated team link and is null until curated. Movement compares the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appears only once frozen records carrying players exist."}}