{"object":"wc_daily_mark","field_ref":"world-cup-2026-winner","layer":"A","mutable":false,"citable":true,"binding_provenance":"informal_slug","canonical_date":"2026-06-06","as_of":"2026-06-06T00:05:08Z","source_uri":"s3://netmon-prod-991599642143-us-west-1-an/public/metrics/world-cup/archive/2026-06-06.json","source_sha256":"c8885d4d0476e307b19b719db49aba417be78f94fb59425c342fe8ef1f8b2361","schema_version":1,"record_convention":"wc_daily_mark_v1","generated_at":"2026-06-06T00:05:08Z","event":{"name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","starts":"2026-06-11","ends":"2026-07-19","hosts":"United States, Canada & Mexico","teams":48,"matches":104},"overview":{"active_markets":1478,"by_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","count":1282},{"venue":"polymarket","count":196}],"markets_traded_24h":{"kalshi":869,"polymarket":137,"total":1006},"last_updated":"2026-06-05T23:00:00+00:00"},"open_interest":{"kalshi_contracts":85620056.35,"polymarket_usd_liquidity":342163319.68,"unit_note":"Kalshi open interest is in contracts; Polymarket figure is USD liquidity. Different units — shown separately, never summed."},"volume_24h":{"kalshi_contracts":10466581.31,"polymarket_usd":39075984.44,"unit_note":"Kalshi 24h volume is in contracts; Polymarket 24h volume is in USD. Shown separately, never summed."},"consensus":{"as_of":"2026-06-06T00:05:08Z","ranked_by":"higher of the two venue implied 'yes' prices","teams":[{"team":"Spain","slug":"spain","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.165,"oi_contracts":2583062.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1595,"volume_24h_usd":554190.28},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.006,"polymarket":-0.01},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.168,0.168,0.168,0.162,0.167,0.17,0.169,0.171,0.172,0.171,0.167,0.167,0.167,0.166],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.45,"oi_contracts":34027.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":17451.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.6,"oi_contracts":9508.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.78,"oi_contracts":3561.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.165,"oi_contracts":2583062.6,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"France","slug":"france","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.162,"oi_contracts":4119551.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1595,"volume_24h_usd":814490.26},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":-0.005},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.007,"polymarket":-0.007},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.179,0.175,0.175,0.172,0.169,0.167,0.168,0.169,0.174,0.176,0.171,0.164,0.163,0.164],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":30523.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.58,"oi_contracts":14987.61,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":27045.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.79,"oi_contracts":5769.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.162,"oi_contracts":4119551.47,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"England","slug":"england","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.105,"oi_contracts":3189142.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.1125,"volume_24h_usd":743730.19},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.002},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.009,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.111,0.111,0.111,0.111,0.109,0.111,0.111,0.114,0.113,0.114,0.109,0.111,0.109,0.104],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":8444.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":19946.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.54,"oi_contracts":3119.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.75,"oi_contracts":4702.72,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.105,"oi_contracts":3189142.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Portugal","slug":"portugal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.096,"oi_contracts":4941155.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0965,"volume_24h_usd":859896.35},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":-0.006},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.084,0.094,0.096,0.098,0.098,0.094,0.089,0.093,0.106,0.104,0.093,0.094,0.095,0.091],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.73,"oi_contracts":12946.47,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.51,"oi_contracts":59305.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":46515.24,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":13975.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.096,"oi_contracts":4941155.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Argentina","slug":"argentina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.092,"oi_contracts":2364925.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0885,"volume_24h_usd":801755.26},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.095,0.095,0.094,0.091,0.09,0.091,0.091,0.091,0.09,0.09,0.088,0.089,0.09,0.092],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.69,"oi_contracts":8518.06,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":22948.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.32,"oi_contracts":6334.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":25006.39,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.092,"oi_contracts":2364925.39,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Brazil","slug":"brazil","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.081,"oi_contracts":2198595.71,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0825,"volume_24h_usd":623145.89},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.003,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.011,"polymarket":-0.011},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.097,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.092,0.092,0.092,0.092,0.09,0.09,0.086,0.086,0.085,0.084],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.47,"oi_contracts":7385.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":3150.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":7202.11,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.71,"oi_contracts":6170.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.081,"oi_contracts":2198595.71,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Germany","slug":"germany","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2208429.37,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0535,"volume_24h_usd":662645.88},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.004,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.051,0.05,0.051,0.051,0.051,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.058,0.058,0.058,0.058],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.38,"oi_contracts":5451.65,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.68,"oi_contracts":4381.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":2858.27,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":7329.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2208429.37,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Netherlands","slug":"netherlands","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.047,"oi_contracts":3123322.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0395,"volume_24h_usd":817884.2},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.006,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.035,0.036,0.035,0.036,0.037,0.04,0.04,0.044,0.043,0.042,0.043,0.041,0.039,0.041],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":6597.08,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.37,"oi_contracts":29296.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":54234.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":11249.54,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.047,"oi_contracts":3123322.07,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Norway","slug":"norway","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":2073285.34,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0255,"volume_24h_usd":535697.1},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.022,0.022,0.022,0.023,0.023,0.024,0.024,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.026,0.025],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":8981.56,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":11206.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":6719.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":11764.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.026,"oi_contracts":2073285.34,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Belgium","slug":"belgium","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":2366962.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0195,"volume_24h_usd":886840.22},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.021,0.021,0.021,0.021,0.025,0.023,0.024,0.023,0.023,0.021,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.02],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.61,"oi_contracts":16189.04,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":5991.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1059.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.34,"oi_contracts":13000.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.023,"oi_contracts":2366962.48,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Japan","slug":"japan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.015,"oi_contracts":2274258.53,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0215,"volume_24h_usd":842247.34},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.003},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.016,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.014,0.013,0.014,0.015],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":27036.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":18064.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":10127.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":14511.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.015,"oi_contracts":2274258.53,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Mexico","slug":"mexico","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":4426174.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0125,"volume_24h_usd":746509.67},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.005,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.01,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.014,0.014,0.013,0.014,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.014],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.55,"oi_contracts":42365.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":43332.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":29132.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":50228.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":4426174.14,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Colombia","slug":"colombia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":1896492.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0175,"volume_24h_usd":1682698.92},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.018,0.018,0.018,0.018,0.018,0.018,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.02,0.019,0.019,0.02,0.019],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.52,"oi_contracts":20485.34,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":5239.83,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":21610.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":53714.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.019,"oi_contracts":1896492.5,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"USA","slug":"usa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":3329552.71,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0115,"volume_24h_usd":558131.29},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.015,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.014,0.015,0.014,0.016],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":25499.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":29900.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.48,"oi_contracts":48998.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.24,"oi_contracts":24425.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.017,"oi_contracts":3329552.71,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Morocco","slug":"morocco","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.014,"oi_contracts":2677145.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0155,"volume_24h_usd":682772.89},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.002,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.002,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.014,0.016,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.016,0.013,0.012,0.014,0.015,0.016,0.016,0.015,0.016],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.44,"oi_contracts":11661.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":12632.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":12125.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":6256.62,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.014,"oi_contracts":2677145.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Türkiye","slug":"turkey","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":2390768.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0135,"volume_24h_usd":659386.54},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0005},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.003,"polymarket":0.006},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.01,0.012],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":3060.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.46,"oi_contracts":7538.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":4605.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":5200.41,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":2390768.03,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Switzerland","slug":"switzerland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":1532240.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"volume_24h_usd":1001288.22},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.009,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.012,0.012,0.011,0.011,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":446.15,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.28,"oi_contracts":1344.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":10894.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.56,"oi_contracts":4721.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":1532240.95,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uruguay","slug":"uruguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":1702819.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0105,"volume_24h_usd":690025.55},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":-0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.012,0.01,0.012,0.011,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.012,0.011,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.39,"oi_contracts":8958.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":11740.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":2406.18,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.21,"oi_contracts":1448.77,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.011,"oi_contracts":1702819.42,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iraq","slug":"iraq","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":65682.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":365930.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":516.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3144.48,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1918.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":65682.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Czechia","slug":"czechia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":36128.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":855559.5},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":248.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":1118.73,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":450.33,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":36128.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Croatia","slug":"croatia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2189355.79,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0095,"volume_24h_usd":1312891.87},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.009,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.009,0.009],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.4,"oi_contracts":8979.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":6279.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":12709.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.19,"oi_contracts":2922.28,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":2189355.79,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Bosnia & Herzegovina","slug":"bosnia-herzegovina","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":126269.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":675665.08},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1378.64,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1069.19,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":874.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.23,"oi_contracts":7431.9,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":126269.86,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Congo DR","slug":"congo-dr","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":18258.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":4590567.98},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":300.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.15,"oi_contracts":1389.36,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":5993.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":18258.36,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ecuador","slug":"ecuador","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":2397398.22,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0085,"volume_24h_usd":782978.74},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.009,0.009],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":27351.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.41,"oi_contracts":10569.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":3687.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":6444.93,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.009,"oi_contracts":2397398.22,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Senegal","slug":"senegal","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":1004770.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0065,"volume_24h_usd":2149734.66},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.008,0.008,0.008],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":9799.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":1143.78,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.14,"oi_contracts":1904.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":5110.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.008,"oi_contracts":1004770.33,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Austria","slug":"austria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":1276504.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0055,"volume_24h_usd":449962.95},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.12,"oi_contracts":6198.71,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":954.01,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":775.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":11737.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":1276504.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Sweden","slug":"sweden","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":1326405.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":756105.3},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":256.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.27,"oi_contracts":5961.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":672.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1000.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.006,"oi_contracts":1326405.83,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ivory Coast","slug":"ivory-coast","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":2107795.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0045,"volume_24h_usd":829542.32},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.002},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.13,"oi_contracts":2330.31,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":321.14,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.29,"oi_contracts":8839.17,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":3146.29,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":2107795.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Canada","slug":"canada","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":1357042.75,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0035,"volume_24h_usd":544449.6},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.004,0.004,0.004,0.003,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.004,0.004],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":647.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":10985.89,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.43,"oi_contracts":14608.42,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.16,"oi_contracts":495.07,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.004,"oi_contracts":1357042.75,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Scotland","slug":"scotland","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":753592.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":743923.71},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":598.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":990.26,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.25,"oi_contracts":1433.05,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":753592.26,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Korea","slug":"south-korea","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1771528.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":968120.86},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":2848.68,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.3,"oi_contracts":12608.8,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3706.86,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":431.38,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1771528.59,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Egypt","slug":"egypt","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1636637.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":3931999.63},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.001},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.08,"oi_contracts":153.7,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.33,"oi_contracts":4412.69,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":1636637.55,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Paraguay","slug":"paraguay","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":681424.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":313104.99},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":3449.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":1297.35,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1003.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.31,"oi_contracts":990.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.003,"oi_contracts":681424.43,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Ghana","slug":"ghana","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1782322.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0025,"volume_24h_usd":887087.95},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":366.84,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":195.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.17,"oi_contracts":1012.85,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1782322.01,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Iran","slug":"iran","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1584778.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":551665.63},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":613.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":6577.97,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1584778.7,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Algeria","slug":"algeria","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":951010.92,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":2087707.26},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":2665.2,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":260.79,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":672.25,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.22,"oi_contracts":4415.1,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":951010.92,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Australia","slug":"australia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1502209.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0015,"volume_24h_usd":235330.8},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":571.98,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":248.52,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":6817.09,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.18,"oi_contracts":924.6,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":1502209.18,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Haiti","slug":"haiti","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2531570.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":296595.01},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.001,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.002,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7832.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":188.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":9274.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":467.58,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.002,"oi_contracts":2531570.99,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Jordan","slug":"jordan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":229801.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":38921.33},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":5598.02,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7801.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":843.22,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":229801.16,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Tunisia","slug":"tunisia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":201829.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":-0.001},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":229.43,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":4982.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":709.99,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":530833.0,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Uzbekistan","slug":"uzbekistan","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":910424.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":302210.63},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.04,"oi_contracts":271.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.06,"oi_contracts":2723.75,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":910424.69,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Saudi Arabia","slug":"saudi-arabia","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":424157.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":146398.21},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1709.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":336.53,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":424157.51,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"South Africa","slug":"south-africa","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":588819.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":179066.01},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":110.5,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":281.03,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.1,"oi_contracts":1608.82,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":167.45,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":588819.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Panama","slug":"panama","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":332491.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":13700.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":10769.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":1540.63,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.09,"oi_contracts":1015.87,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":4793.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":332491.31,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Qatar","slug":"qatar","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":210853.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":121910.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":961.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.05,"oi_contracts":2489.3,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":842.67,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":210853.8,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"New Zealand","slug":"new-zealand","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":585303.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":51390.04},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.03,"oi_contracts":1280.92,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.11,"oi_contracts":1075.21,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":468.59,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"sf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":281.55,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":585303.91,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Curaçao","slug":"curacao","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":161168.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":18600.0},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":8399.91,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"final":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.01,"oi_contracts":7801.0,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":161168.9,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}},{"team":"Cape Verde","slug":"cape-verde","kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":261012.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"},"polymarket":{"yes_price":0.0005,"volume_24h_usd":160696.26},"delta_24h":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_7d":{"kalshi":0.0,"polymarket":0.0},"delta_30d":null,"spark":{"kalshi":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001],"polymarket":[]},"advancement":{"as_of_stage_set":["r16","qf","sf","final","win"],"stages":{"r16":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.07,"oi_contracts":1175.88,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"qf":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.02,"oi_contracts":313.13,"ticker":"KXWCROUND"}},"win":{"kalshi":{"yes_price":0.001,"oi_contracts":261012.17,"ticker":"KXMENWORLDCUP"}}},"note":"Implied probability of reaching each stage, per venue. Source: Kalshi 'qualify for' reach markets (KXWCROUND); 'win' is the team's tournament-winner market. Independent markets, displayed as priced — no smoothing, no derived conditionals. A missing stage means no market, not zero."}}],"history":{"has_24h":true,"has_7d":true,"has_30d":false},"note":"Implied championship probability per venue. These are independent per-team 'yes' markets, not a normalized distribution — across all teams they sum to more than 100% (overround). Kalshi (contracts) and Polymarket (USD) are shown separately and never blended. Belief shifts compare the current value with the 00:00 UTC canonical mark 1 and 7 days prior, and appear only once those frozen records exist."}}